Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Florida Atlantic · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F6 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tulsa

3-2 · Power #118

final

Final

Florida Atlantic

1-3 · Power #105

▲ winner

Closing spread

FAU -4

✓ TLSA W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

TLSA 26–29 FAU

✓ FAU (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFAU -4

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFAU -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Line context

Home favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 60%, covered 49% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFAU -4

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FAU as a 4-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: FAU won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 3.8; 48 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NAVY vs USF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	30–44	L	O54.5
Very close	WYO vs USU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.25	28–14	W	U44.5
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	USA vs TXST 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	30–20	W	U57.5
Very close	RUTG vs IU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	24–17	W	U48
Very close	GT vs UVA 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	9–16	L	U48
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	24–20	W	U50.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA LPLWW	2-2-1	50%	1-0-1	1-1-1
FAU LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; FAU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UUOUO	2-3	40%	3-2
FAU OUOU	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSAlast 5	3-2 60%	2-2-1 50%	2-3 40%
FAUlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA+3.9 →−5.9▼ 9.8#95

FAU−0.2 →−7.5▼ 7.3#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TLSA

Longer bar = better

FAU

#77

Offense

◀ TLSA better

#118

#107

Defense

FAU better ▶

#86

−0.4 #95

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #105

70 plays #36

Pace

◀ TLSA faster

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #77	27.0 #84	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #88	5.31 #55	FAU
PPA / play	+0.09 #88	+0.10 #79	Even
Success rate	44% #55	47% #127	TLSA

When FAU has the ball

Even matchup

	FAU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #115	31.2 #111	Even
Yards / play	4.87 #120	6.04 #107	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #126	+0.15 #99	TLSA
Success rate	38% #111	45% #110	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	3.8 #110	11.2 #26	15.0 #71	4.6 #103	8.2 #42	12.8 #80
FAU allowed	6.8 #105	10.5 #114	17.3 #111	5.8 #74	4.0 #23	9.8 #44

FAU scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	6.0 #66	6.0 #109	12.0 #97	3.5 #116	5.3 #98	8.8 #118
TLSA allowed	10.4 #128	5.0 #31	15.4 #98	11.4 #131	4.4 #32	15.8 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.