Jacksonville State @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Wed, Oct 4, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

4-1 · Power #69

▲ winner

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-4 · Power #99

final

Closing spread

MTSU -2.5

✓ JXST W

Total

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 24–26 MTSU

✗ MTSU (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -2.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMTSU -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMTSU -2.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MTSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against JXST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 45–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 52, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.5 against an average line of 2.6; 51.3 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	35–31	W	O51
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	UTEP vs UNLV 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	28–45	L	O49.5
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	GAST vs GASO 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	30–24	W	O51
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	UNT vs UTEP 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-0.5	20–17	W	U55
Very close	HAW vs NMSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	20–17	L	U55
Very close	TLSA vs HOU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	10–45	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WWLWP	3-1-1	75%	0-1-1	1-1
MTSU LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: JXST away, as underdog; MTSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UUUUO	1-4	20%	4-1
MTSU –UUOU	1-3	25%	1-4

Went over in Q4. Of 91 earlier overs in games with totals 48–56, 41% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXSTlast 5	4-1 80%	3-1-1 75%	1-4 20%
MTSUlast 5	1-4 20%	1-4 20%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

JXST 4–0 MTSU JXST leads · 4 games since 2023 · JXST has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−6.0▼ 0.9#96

MTSU−13.1 →−8.0▲ 5.1#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

JXST

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#88

Offense

Even

#100

#15

Defense

◀ JXST better

#100

+1.4 #7

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

−0.6 #110

70 plays #33

Pace

◀ JXST faster

69 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #78	31.0 #110	JXST
Yards / play	5.15 #105	5.76 #88	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #91	+0.17 #102	Even
Success rate	41% #78	44% #100	JXST

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	MTSU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #124	15.0 #19	JXST
Yards / play	5.27 #99	4.32 #10	JXST
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	−0.08 #18	JXST
Success rate	40% #92	33% #13	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.4 #48	4.8 #119	12.2 #93	8.4 #34	5.6 #87	14.0 #62
MTSU allowed	7.4 #113	8.2 #83	15.6 #100	5.4 #67	10.0 #120	15.4 #109

MTSU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	4.8 #84	4.8 #119	9.6 #117	4.8 #93	4.4 #108	9.2 #113
JXST allowed	4.8 #62	3.4 #8	8.2 #30	2.6 #19	4.2 #30	6.8 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.