New Mexico State @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 11:59 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Hawai'i

Weather at kickoff77°F12 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Mexico State

2-2 · Power #84

final

Final

Hawai'i

1-3 · Power #123

▲ winner

Closing spread

HAW -3.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 25–28 HAW

✓ HAW (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHAW -3.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseHAW -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseHAW -3.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HAW as a 3.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 55, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 3.1; 48.3 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	USA vs TXST 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	30–20	W	U57.5
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Close	UTEP vs MTSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–24	L	U52
Close	UNM vs NMSU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.75	17–27	L	U52.25
Close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-1	38–19	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
HAW WLPL	1-2-1	33%	0-1-1	0-0-1

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; HAW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2
HAW OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 47% of games with totals 51–59 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
HAWlast 4	1-3 25%	1-2-1 33%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−6.9 →−8.7▼ 1.8#109

HAW−6.5 →−15.2▼ 8.7#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NMSU

Longer bar = better

HAW

#22

Offense

◀ NMSU better

#113

Defense

HAW better ▶

#89

−1.0 #112

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #113

56 plays #129

Pace

HAW faster ▶

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #50	36.8 #127	NMSU
Yards / play	8.29 #3	5.82 #96	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.33 #16	+0.09 #73	NMSU
Success rate	51% #20	39% #61	NMSU

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #94	28.0 #98	Even
Yards / play	4.91 #117	6.09 #113	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #115	+0.27 #126	Even
Success rate	35% #126	47% #116	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.3 #110	12.8 #21	16.0 #60	5.0 #86	12.0 #7	17.0 #38
HAW allowed	13.0 #132	10.3 #104	23.3 #132	7.5 #102	6.0 #64	13.5 #93

HAW scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	4.3 #94	6.8 #97	11.0 #107	1.8 #127	10.5 #14	12.3 #74
NMSU allowed	4.3 #62	10.0 #101	14.3 #90	5.0 #69	8.8 #107	13.8 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.