Eastern Michigan @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Jacksonville State

Weather at kickoff84°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

2-1 · Power #126

final

Final

Jacksonville State

2-1 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -6.5

✓ JXST W

Total

▼ Under · 21 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 21–28 JXST

✓ JXST (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -6.5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJXST -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJXST -6.5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 6.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 21–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 51, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 6.5; 50.5 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARMY vs GAST 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-8.5	14–31	L	U54
Very close	UL vs ARST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.25	38–18	W	O51.25
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	TROY vs GASO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	27–24	L	O50.75
Close	USU vs WYO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-5.75	17–44	L	O52
Close	ARMY vs M-OH 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	23–10	W	U48.75
Close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5
Close	TROY vs CCU 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	45–26	W	O49
Close	UTEP vs ODU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	28–21	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0
JXST WWL	2-1	67%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
JXST UUU	0-3	0%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 47–55 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMUlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
JXSTlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−3.1 →−11.8▼ 8.7#125

JXST−5.1 →−7.1▼ 2.0#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

EMU

Longer bar = better

JXST

#104

Offense

JXST better ▶

#80

#76

Defense

JXST better ▶

#38

+1.0 #23

Turnovers

JXST better ▶

+2.0 #4

51 plays #133

Pace

JXST faster ▶

71 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	EMU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #116	15.7 #29	JXST
Yards / play	5.32 #95	4.79 #44	JXST
PPA / play	+0.04 #101	−0.02 #41	JXST
Success rate	39% #103	36% #38	JXST

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #79	21.7 #61	Even
Yards / play	4.87 #112	5.77 #95	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	+0.06 #64	Even
Success rate	44% #56	42% #84	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	6.3 #61	9.0 #66	15.3 #67	0.0 #129	4.0 #110	4.0 #129
JXST allowed	3.3 #44	3.3 #19	6.7 #22	4.3 #57	4.7 #45	9.0 #38

JXST scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	7.7 #45	5.7 #112	13.3 #82	9.3 #28	4.7 #99	14.0 #59
EMU allowed	0.0 #1	7.3 #78	7.3 #32	10.3 #122	4.0 #35	14.3 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.