Rice @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at South Florida · Conference game

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Rice

2-1 · Power #90

final

Final

South Florida

1-2 · Power #95

▲ winner

Closing spread

RICE -2.5

✓ USF W

Total

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 29–27 USF

✗ RICE (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRICE -2.5

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseRICE -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseRICE -2.5

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RICE as a 2.5-point road favorite at USF, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 42–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 57, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 2.9; 52.7 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ SYR 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	38–21	W	O54
Very close	HAW @ WYO 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	7–31	L	U60
Very close	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Very close	DUKE @ GT 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U54
Close	CSU @ USU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3	24–26	L	U58.5
Close	OHIO @ BALL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	32–18	W	U57.5
Close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Close	CMU @ BALL 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	37–17	W	U57
Close	RICE @ LT 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-3	42–41	L	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0
USF LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: RICE away, as favorite; USF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE UOO	2-1	67%	2-1
USF –UU	0-2	0%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 53–61, 41% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICElast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	2-1 67%
USFlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−10.1 →−7.4▲ 2.7#100

USF−3.1 →−10.4▼ 7.3#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

RICE

Longer bar = better

USF

#41

Offense

◀ RICE better

#124

#75

Defense

Even

#76

−0.7 #110

Turnovers

USF better ▶

+0.3 #51

64 plays #91

Pace

USF faster ▶

83 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: RICE offense

	RICE off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #36	27.3 #92	RICE
Yards / play	5.86 #71	5.56 #82	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #25	+0.11 #89	RICE
Success rate	50% #31	36% #40	Even

When USF has the ball

Advantage: RICE defense

	USF off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #107	28.3 #96	Even
Yards / play	4.58 #126	5.27 #67	RICE
PPA / play	−0.07 #129	−0.02 #45	RICE
Success rate	32% #133	43% #93	RICE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	17.3 #3	7.0 #95	24.3 #12	3.3 #110	4.7 #98	8.0 #114
USF allowed	4.7 #77	6.7 #64	11.3 #74	8.0 #107	8.0 #100	16.0 #111

USF scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	10.3 #17	4.3 #115	14.7 #70	4.7 #96	2.3 #122	7.0 #119
RICE allowed	2.3 #19	7.7 #84	10.0 #56	7.0 #93	7.0 #80	14.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.