SMU @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at TCU

Weather at kickoff91°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

SMU

2-1 · Power #22

final

Final

TCU

2-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -7

✓ TCU W

Total

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 26–32 TCU

✓ TCU (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -7

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTCU -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close62

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -7

Total62

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 7-point home favorite against SMU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 34–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 62, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.7 against an average line of 6.7; 57.5 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs MRSH 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	31–30	L	O59.25
Very close	UNC vs UVA 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	59–39	W	O66.5
Close	ND vs PUR 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–13	W	U58.5
Close	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	38–20	W	U61
Close	TEX vs TCU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	10–17	L	U65.75
Close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-7	55–28	W	O61.5
Close	ORE vs ORST 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	38–29	W	O61.25
Close	ISU vs TEX 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	30–7	W	U59.5
Close	ORE vs BYU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	41–20	W	O58
Close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	17–26	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1
TCU LLW	1-2	33%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: SMU away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU –UO	1-1	50%	2-1
TCU –UU	0-2	0%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 44% of games with totals 58–66 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
TCUlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+10.7 →+8.3▼ 2.4#27

TCU−3.1 →+7.2▲ 10.3#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

SMU

Longer bar = better

TCU

#57

Offense

TCU better ▶

#30

#14

Defense

◀ SMU better

#61

−0.7 #108

Turnovers

TCU better ▶

−0.3 #87

74 plays #18

Pace

TCU faster ▶

79 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #26	21.3 #60	SMU
Yards / play	6.26 #41	5.02 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #64	+0.01 #56	Even
Success rate	40% #95	40% #75	Even

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	39.7 #25	14.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.53 #32	4.20 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #41	−0.15 #8	SMU
Success rate	52% #21	31% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	10.3 #16	15.0 #15	25.3 #12	7.0 #52	7.0 #63	14.0 #61
TCU allowed	3.3 #48	7.7 #81	11.0 #69	5.7 #77	4.7 #44	10.3 #67

TCU scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.0 #47	12.3 #32	19.3 #36	7.7 #49	12.7 #8	20.3 #18
SMU allowed	2.3 #20	2.3 #12	4.7 #5	2.3 #19	7.0 #78	9.3 #48

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.