Tulsa @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Northern Illinois

Weather at kickoff73°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

1-2 · Power #118

▲ winner

Final

Northern Illinois

1-2 · Power #94

final

Closing spread

NIU -3.5

✓ TLSA W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 25–27 NIU

✗ NIU (58%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -3.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNIU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -3.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 3.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TLSA won 22–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 3.3; 62.2 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	30–38	L	O52
Close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Close	EMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	31–50	L	O57.5
Close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Close	USF vs TEM 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-1.5	34–14	W	U55
Close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Close	FSU vs DUKE 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-3	56–35	W	O57
Close	BC vs GT 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	48–27	W	O57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA LPL	0-2-1	0%	0-0-1	0-1-1
NIU WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
NIU OUO	2-1	67%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 48% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSAlast 3	1-2 33%	0-2-1 0%	1-2 33%
NIUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA+3.9 →−9.1▼ 13.0#113

NIU−1.1 →−11.2▼ 10.1#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TLSA

Longer bar = better

NIU

#88

Offense

◀ TLSA better

#129

#132

Defense

NIU better ▶

#68

−1.3 #127

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #119

71 plays #31

Pace

◀ TLSA faster

69 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #100	24.3 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.27 #99	4.97 #50	NIU
PPA / play	+0.05 #101	+0.10 #83	Even
Success rate	45% #53	38% #58	Even

When NIU has the ball

Even matchup

	NIU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #126	38.7 #129	Even
Yards / play	4.09 #134	7.27 #132	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #125	+0.38 #132	Even
Success rate	34% #129	53% #133	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	1.0 #127	14.0 #20	15.0 #67	3.3 #106	4.7 #91	8.0 #111
NIU allowed	4.7 #70	2.3 #12	7.0 #31	7.0 #92	9.3 #106	16.3 #112

NIU scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	1.0 #127	2.3 #125	3.3 #129	3.3 #106	7.7 #55	11.0 #93
TLSA allowed	16.3 #130	6.0 #60	22.3 #125	11.7 #126	4.7 #44	16.3 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.