Northern Illinois @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

1-3 · Power #94

final

Final

Toledo

3-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -13.5

✓ NIU W

Total

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 18–32 TOL

✓ TOL (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -13.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -13.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 13.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 35–33; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.7 against an average line of 14.3; 54.1 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	20–22	L	U51
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	BSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.75	23–13	L	U48.5
Very close	CCU vs GAST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-12.5	40–42	L	O53.5
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Very close	APP vs TROY 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	47–10	W	O50.5
Very close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Very close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-16	38–21	W	O46
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	6–14	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WLLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1
TOL WWLL	2-2	50%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OUOU	2-2	50%	1-3
TOL –OUO	2-1	67%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 66 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIUlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%
TOLlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−1.1 →−10.4▼ 9.3#116

TOL+0.7 →+1.8▲ 1.1#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

NIU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#130

Offense

TOL better ▶

#33

#54

Defense

TOL better ▶

#35

−0.8 #111

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

0.0 #80

69 plays #43

Pace

Even

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	NIU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	15.8 #130	20.3 #50	TOL
Yards / play	4.12 #134	4.65 #31	TOL
PPA / play	−0.06 #128	−0.08 #15	TOL
Success rate	35% #128	37% #42	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	42.3 #10	23.8 #68	TOL
Yards / play	6.35 #41	4.75 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #43	+0.03 #52	Even
Success rate	47% #37	39% #60	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	0.8 #132	3.5 #122	4.3 #132	4.3 #101	5.8 #84	10.0 #102
TOL allowed	3.5 #47	7.5 #76	11.0 #65	5.0 #68	4.3 #37	9.3 #40

TOL scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	9.8 #19	11.0 #34	20.8 #19	10.5 #15	11.0 #10	21.5 #6
NIU allowed	4.0 #57	3.5 #19	7.5 #28	6.0 #86	9.5 #113	15.5 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.