Boston College @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Boston College

1-2 · Power #75

final

Final

Louisville

3-0 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -14

✓ LOU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 84 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 19–34 LOU

✓ LOU (85%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -14

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLOU -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLOU -14

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 14-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 56–28; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 84 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 14.3; 57.6 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CCU vs GAST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-12.5	40–42	L	O53.5
Very close	ASU vs STAN 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.5	28–10	W	U53.5
Very close	TOL vs NIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13	20–22	L	U51
Very close	PITT vs WMU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	41–44	L	O58.5
Very close	APP vs TROY 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	47–10	W	O50.5
Very close	PUR vs FAU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.25	28–26	L	U57.25
Very close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	43–37	L	O56
Very close	UL vs GAST 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.5	21–17	L	U53.5
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Close	CIN vs IU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	45–24	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC LLW	1-2	33%	—	1-0
LOU LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-2

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC OOO	3-0	100%	1-2
LOU –OU	1-1	50%	3-0

Went over in Q2. Of 49 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 41% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BClast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%
LOUlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BC 7–11 LOU LOU leads · 18 games since 1986 · LOU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−0.4 →−7.2▼ 6.8#99

LOU+2.1 →+5.0▲ 2.9#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

LOU

#75

Offense

LOU better ▶

#15

#97

Defense

LOU better ▶

#62

+0.7 #36

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #35

70 plays #44

Pace

Even

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #76	16.0 #34	LOU
Yards / play	5.62 #78	5.46 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #54	+0.05 #62	Even
Success rate	40% #90	40% #72	Even

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #26	28.7 #100	LOU
Yards / play	7.74 #10	5.73 #92	LOU
PPA / play	+0.43 #10	+0.12 #93	LOU
Success rate	53% #14	44% #102	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

BC scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.7 #80	6.7 #101	11.3 #104	4.3 #103	11.3 #12	15.7 #46
LOU allowed	0.0 #1	9.3 #96	9.3 #53	4.7 #59	2.0 #3	6.7 #19

LOU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.7 #58	14.0 #16	20.7 #25	8.0 #40	10.0 #24	18.0 #29
BC allowed	1.0 #9	11.7 #117	12.7 #83	9.3 #117	4.7 #44	14.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.