North Carolina @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F11 mphgusts 21Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

North Carolina

3-0 · Power #34

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh

1-2 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

UNC -7

✓ UNC W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 27–21 PITT

✓ UNC (66%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -7

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNC -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -7

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 7-point road favorite at PITT, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 41–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 7.3; 45.2 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT @ PITT 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	14–47	L	O53
Very close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	26–16	W	U48
Very close	UL @ TROY 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	35–21	W	O48
Very close	MIA @ VT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-9	20–14	L	U48.25
Very close	UK @ SC 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	16–10	W	U49
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	BSU @ WYO 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	17–9	L	U46.5
Close	OKST @ BAY 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar total & rest	-6	42–3	W	U49
Close	USC @ COLO 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-9	37–14	W	P51
Close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7	28–34	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC WLW	2-1	67%	—	2-1
PITT WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: UNC away, as favorite; PITT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UOU	1-2	33%	3-0
PITT OOU	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q3. Of 57 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 37% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNClast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
PITTlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UNC 13–6 PITT UNC leads · 19 games since 1974 · UNC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+0.1 →+4.6▲ 4.5#42

PITT+3.7 →+0.8▼ 2.9#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UNC

Longer bar = better

PITT

#51

Offense

◀ UNC better

#111

#71

Defense

PITT better ▶

#37

+0.5 #45

Turnovers

◀ UNC better

−1.0 #121

73 plays #25

Pace

◀ UNC faster

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #33	23.0 #66	UNC
Yards / play	6.36 #39	4.58 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #62	−0.03 #34	PITT
Success rate	42% #69	34% #21	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	PITT off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #92	22.0 #58	UNC
Yards / play	4.98 #111	5.22 #57	UNC
PPA / play	−0.12 #134	+0.08 #72	UNC
Success rate	38% #107	43% #95	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	4.7 #91	11.3 #37	16.0 #56	9.0 #31	4.7 #100	13.7 #68
PITT allowed	3.3 #46	5.7 #52	9.0 #51	5.7 #83	2.3 #9	8.0 #30

PITT scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	5.7 #71	8.0 #79	13.7 #76	3.3 #117	7.0 #63	10.3 #96
UNC allowed	2.3 #24	9.0 #96	11.3 #73	3.3 #36	4.3 #44	7.7 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.