Syracuse @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F10 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Syracuse

4-1 · Power #82

final

Final

North Carolina

4-0 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -9

✓ UNC W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

SYR 24–31 UNC

✓ UNC (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -9

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNC -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Line context

Home favorites of 7–11 since 2023: won 74%, covered 49% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNC -9

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 9-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 40–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 8.2; 56.1 points a game (usually 54.9).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9	27–10	W	U51
Close	NEB vs PUR 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–28	L	U54
Close	TCU vs SMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-7	34–17	W	U63
Close	TEX vs TCU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	10–17	L	U65.75
Close	TEX vs WVU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	38–20	W	U61
Close	TCU vs SMU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	34–42	L	O65.5
Close	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & season form	-6	16–26	L	U52.75
Close	WAKE vs SYR 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	45–35	W	O58.5
Close	ORE vs ORST 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	38–29	W	O61.25
Close	USC vs ORST 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-11	27–45	L	O62.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR WWWPL	3-1-1	75%	1-0	0-1
UNC WLWW	3-1	75%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR OUUUU	1-4	20%	4-1
UNC UOUO	2-2	50%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYRlast 5	4-1 80%	3-1-1 75%	1-4 20%
UNClast 4	4-0 100%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR+6.3 →+8.0▲ 1.7#26

UNC+0.1 →+7.6▲ 7.5#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

SYR

Longer bar = better

UNC

#39

Offense

Even

#49

#14

Defense

◀ SYR better

#62

+0.6 #33

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #37

73 plays #19

Pace

Even

73 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: SYR offense

	SYR off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	38.2 #15	22.0 #44	SYR
Yards / play	6.33 #37	5.22 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #59	+0.08 #66	Even
Success rate	45% #45	43% #93	SYR

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: SYR defense

	UNC off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #32	14.8 #16	Even
Yards / play	6.36 #36	4.27 #6	SYR
PPA / play	+0.15 #60	−0.09 #12	SYR
Success rate	42% #68	35% #22	SYR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	10.8 #13	11.8 #22	22.6 #12	8.8 #33	6.8 #70	15.6 #43
UNC allowed	3.5 #44	9.3 #98	12.8 #72	4.3 #46	3.3 #13	7.5 #21

UNC scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	5.3 #80	13.8 #13	19.0 #28	10.0 #18	3.5 #122	13.5 #71
SYR allowed	5.6 #82	3.4 #6	9.0 #34	2.0 #11	3.8 #20	5.8 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.