Alabama @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

4-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Texas A&M

4-1 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

ALA -1.5

✓ ALA W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

ALA 24–23 TA&M

✓ ALA (52%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -1.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseALA -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -1.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 1.5-point road favorite at TA&M, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 26–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 2.2; 51.8 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ PSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–17	W	U48
Very close	WISC @ IOWA 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	7–28	L	U40.5
Very close	ISU @ TEX 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	U58
Very close	LSU @ MISS 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	49–55	L	O67
Very close	FSU @ CLEM 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	31–24	W	P55
Very close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Very close	TA&M @ MISS 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.25	19–29	L	U57.5
Very close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	10–9	P	U45
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	TEX @ KSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	34–27	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2
TA&M WLWWW	4-1	80%	3-0	—

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; TA&M home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA –OUUO	2-2	50%	4-1
TA&M OOUUO	3-2	60%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALAlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-2 50%
TA&Mlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ALA 13–3 TA&M ALA leads · 16 games since 1941 · ALA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+13.1 →+17.2▲ 4.1#9

TA&M+10.3 →+16.5▲ 6.2#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ALA

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#57

Offense

TA&M better ▶

#27

#17

Defense

Even

#24

+0.8 #24

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

−0.8 #120

63 plays #108

Pace

TA&M faster ▶

69 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	ALA off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #51	18.6 #32	Even
Yards / play	5.80 #72	4.50 #17	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.19 #51	+0.01 #40	Even
Success rate	44% #53	32% #6	TA&M

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #15	14.2 #17	Even
Yards / play	6.46 #34	4.42 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #30	−0.03 #27	Even
Success rate	48% #28	32% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	6.2 #57	8.6 #70	14.8 #72	9.0 #29	8.4 #37	17.4 #26
TA&M allowed	2.0 #13	6.0 #47	8.0 #25	4.6 #51	6.0 #64	10.6 #53

TA&M scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.0 #38	12.4 #17	20.4 #19	10.0 #18	8.2 #40	18.2 #17
ALA allowed	2.6 #19	4.0 #14	6.6 #12	3.4 #33	4.2 #27	7.6 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.