Arkansas @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

2-3 · Power #59

final

Final

Ole Miss

4-1 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -10.5

✓ ARK W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

ARK 25–35 MISS

✓ MISS (78%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -10.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMISS -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMISS -10.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 10.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 27–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 10.9; 59.1 points a game (usually 55.3).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs WASH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12	34–37	L	U74
Very close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Very close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	45–38	L	O58
Very close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Very close	PSU vs MD 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	30–0	W	U56.5
Very close	PITT vs MIA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	34–38	L	O61
Very close	MISS vs LSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9	31–17	W	U76.75
Very close	OU vs TCU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	52–31	W	O64.5
Very close	TENN vs UK 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	44–6	W	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-0	1-1
MISS WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK OUOOO	4-1	80%	2-3
MISS OUOUO	3-2	60%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARKlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%
MISSlast 5	4-1 80%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+3.7 →+5.1▲ 1.4#38

MISS+4.5 →+13.6▲ 9.1#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ARK

Longer bar = better

MISS

#56

Offense

MISS better ▶

#15

#62

Defense

◀ ARK better

#84

+1.2 #10

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #22

65 plays #88

Pace

MISS faster ▶

69 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #42	24.6 #69	ARK
Yards / play	5.30 #99	5.38 #60	MISS
PPA / play	+0.21 #42	+0.14 #94	ARK
Success rate	45% #42	45% #112	ARK

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	44.6 #6	25.0 #72	MISS
Yards / play	7.48 #9	5.56 #72	MISS
PPA / play	+0.40 #10	−0.02 #32	MISS
Success rate	47% #36	41% #71	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	9.6 #19	8.8 #67	18.4 #37	6.8 #63	8.4 #37	15.2 #46
MISS allowed	4.8 #67	7.4 #68	12.2 #68	6.4 #86	6.0 #65	12.4 #73

MISS scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	14.6 #4	4.6 #126	19.2 #25	11.0 #7	14.4 #1	25.4 #1
ARK allowed	5.4 #80	6.0 #47	11.4 #58	8.2 #109	5.4 #55	13.6 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.