Kentucky @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F11 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

5-0 · Power #44

final

Final

Georgia

5-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -15

✓ UGA W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

UK 16–31 UGA

✓ UGA (86%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -15

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUGA -15

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -15

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 15-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 51–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 14.7; 50.3 points a game (usually 55.7).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	27–21	L	U50
Very close	TEX vs KU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	40–14	W	U61
Very close	MICH vs ILL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-17	19–17	L	U41.5
Close	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Close	CLEM vs MIAMI 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.25	42–17	W	U60.25
Close	OU vs WVU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	16–13	L	U56.5
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	PSU vs IOWA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	31–0	W	U38.5
Close	TENN vs SC 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	41–20	W	U63
Close	UGA vs TENN 2020 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	44–21	W	O43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK WLWWW	4-1	80%	1-0	—
UGA LPLLL	0-4-1	0%	0-3-1	0-4-1

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OUUOO	3-2	60%	5-0
UGA UUUOO	2-3	40%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UKlast 5	5-0 100%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%
UGAlast 5	5-0 100%	0-4-1 0%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+6.1 →+7.1▲ 1.0#31

UGA+6.4 →+18.1▲ 11.7#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

UGA

#35

Offense

UGA better ▶

#15

#19

Defense

Even

#15

+0.6 #30

Turnovers

◀ UK better

+0.4 #44

55 plays #134

Pace

UGA faster ▶

70 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Even matchup

	UK off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #21	13.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	7.20 #15	4.40 #13	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #28	−0.09 #12	Even
Success rate	41% #76	35% #20	UGA

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #14	15.2 #19	Even
Yards / play	6.89 #19	4.56 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.31 #16	−0.10 #11	Even
Success rate	52% #10	36% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UK scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	9.4 #23	8.8 #66	18.2 #41	9.8 #21	9.0 #23	18.8 #14
UGA allowed	3.4 #38	4.2 #19	7.6 #21	1.4 #6	4.0 #23	5.4 #8

UGA scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	3.4 #113	14.4 #6	17.8 #44	12.6 #4	8.2 #42	20.8 #8
UK allowed	2.8 #24	3.4 #7	6.2 #8	4.6 #51	4.4 #32	9.0 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.