South Carolina @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

2-2 · Power #47

final

Final

Tennessee

3-1 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -12

✓ TENN W

Total

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 23–35 TENN

✓ TENN (82%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -12

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTENN -12

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTENN -12

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 12-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 41–20; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 59, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.4 against an average line of 13; 65.6 points a game (usually 56). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Very close	UNC vs NCST 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.75	48–21	W	O61.5
Very close	ORE vs WSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-13.25	38–24	W	O57.75
Very close	KSU vs KU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-12	47–27	W	O62
Very close	OU vs TCU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	52–31	W	O64.5
Very close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	45–38	L	O58
Very close	FLA vs SC 2020 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	38–24	L	O57
Very close	ASU vs STAN 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	28–10	W	U53.5
Close	PUR vs NEB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	43–37	L	O56
Close	TEX vs UTSA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	41–20	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC LWWW	3-1	75%	1-0	1-1
TENN WLLW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC UOUO	2-2	50%	2-2
TENN OUUP	1-2-1	33%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 50 earlier overs in games with totals 55–63, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SClast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
TENNlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-2-1 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SC 11–29 TENN (2 tied) TENN leads · 42 games since 1903 · TENN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC−1.6 →+2.3▲ 3.9#48

TENN+9.7 →+14.3▲ 4.6#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

TENN

#47

Offense

Even

#38

#93

Defense

TENN better ▶

#15

+0.3 #63

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #55

68 plays #59

Pace

TENN faster ▶

70 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	SC off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #70	17.3 #30	TENN
Yards / play	6.11 #48	4.21 #7	TENN
PPA / play	+0.28 #28	−0.08 #18	Even
Success rate	47% #43	30% #4	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #37	26.5 #85	TENN
Yards / play	6.62 #31	6.08 #111	TENN
PPA / play	+0.24 #40	+0.12 #88	TENN
Success rate	47% #42	42% #87	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

SC scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	7.0 #49	11.8 #26	18.8 #33	5.0 #91	5.0 #99	10.0 #107
TENN allowed	2.3 #21	6.5 #53	8.8 #37	5.3 #65	3.3 #11	8.5 #31

TENN scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	7.8 #40	10.3 #45	18.0 #41	6.8 #68	10.3 #15	17.0 #35
SC allowed	4.3 #58	8.5 #89	12.8 #75	9.5 #119	4.3 #37	13.8 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.