Georgia @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

4-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

3-1 · Power #40

final

Closing spread

UGA -14

✓ AUB W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 32–20 AUB

✓ UGA (81%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -14

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUGA -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUGA -14

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 14-point road favorite at AUB, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UGA won 27–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 13.4; 50.6 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA @ AUB 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	34–10	W	U45.5
Close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	ND @ PITT 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-10	45–3	W	O43.5
Close	UNC @ BC 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	26–22	L	U52.5
Close	BSU @ AFA 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	49–30	W	O49
Loose	MICH @ IOWA 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-10.5	27–14	W	U42
Loose	OKST @ KSU 2020 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & rest	-14	20–18	L	U48.5
Loose	OU @ KSU 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-12.5	37–31	L	O53
Loose	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & rest	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Loose	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-16.25	45–19	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA LPLL	0-3-1	0%	—	0-3-1
AUB WLLL	1-3	25%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: UGA away, as favorite; AUB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA UUUO	1-3	25%	4-0
AUB OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 43 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGAlast 4	4-0 100%	0-3-1 0%	1-3 25%
AUBlast 4	3-1 75%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UGA 64–53 AUB (6 tied) UGA leads · 123 games since 1902 · AUB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+6.4 →+18.5▲ 12.1#4

AUB+11.4 →+9.8▼ 1.6#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UGA

Longer bar = better

AUB

#16

Offense

◀ UGA better

#61

#12

Defense

◀ UGA better

#32

+0.8 #32

Turnovers

◀ UGA better

+0.3 #57

72 plays #29

Pace

◀ UGA faster

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #13	16.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.94 #23	4.81 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #13	−0.04 #32	Even
Success rate	53% #13	36% #36	UGA

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	AUB off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #52	11.3 #9	UGA
Yards / play	5.56 #83	4.29 #11	UGA
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	−0.10 #12	UGA
Success rate	48% #34	33% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	4.3 #92	15.5 #6	19.8 #27	14.0 #1	7.8 #55	21.8 #4
AUB allowed	4.0 #57	1.8 #3	5.8 #11	6.8 #95	3.5 #20	10.3 #53

AUB scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	2.5 #118	12.0 #25	14.5 #70	8.8 #32	8.8 #43	17.5 #30
UGA allowed	1.8 #11	5.3 #48	7.0 #24	0.0 #1	4.3 #37	4.3 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.