Michigan @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff93°F17 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan

4-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Nebraska

2-2 · Power #62

final

Closing spread

MICH -17.5

✓ MICH W

Total

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 28–11 NEB

✓ MICH (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -17.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -17.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -17.5

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 17.5-point road favorite at NEB, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 45–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 40, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 85%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.5 against an average line of 16.7; 42.7 points a game (usually 55.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Loose	ILL @ NU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-14.75	41–3	W	O38
Loose	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Loose	AFA @ WYO 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & rest	-16.5	14–17	L	U47
Loose	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Loose	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Loose	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Loose	ALA @ TA&M 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-18.5	38–41	L	O50.75
Loose	TEX @ BAY 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest	-17.5	38–6	W	U49.5
Loose	UGA @ UK 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-17	14–3	L	U42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH LLLP	0-3-1	0%	—	0-3-1
NEB WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; NEB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UUUU	0-4	0%	4-0
NEB –UOU	1-2	33%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 14 earlier overs in games with totals 36–44, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICHlast 4	4-0 100%	0-3-1 0%	0-4 0%
NEBlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+8.4 →+16.3▲ 7.9#10

NEB+0.1 →+0.9▲ 0.8#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MICH

Longer bar = better

NEB

#23

Offense

◀ MICH better

#86

Defense

◀ MICH better

#39

0.0 #72

Turnovers

◀ MICH better

−1.3 #126

57 plays #128

Pace

NEB faster ▶

63 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #54	18.5 #34	Even
Yards / play	7.11 #17	4.46 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.40 #8	+0.07 #65	MICH
Success rate	54% #12	36% #35	MICH

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	NEB off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #104	5.8 #1	MICH
Yards / play	5.68 #71	4.35 #14	MICH
PPA / play	+0.03 #105	−0.20 #2	MICH
Success rate	42% #64	24% #1	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	7.0 #48	11.0 #34	18.0 #40	12.0 #8	1.8 #130	13.8 #62
NEB allowed	0.8 #5	5.8 #53	6.5 #17	2.5 #19	9.5 #113	12.0 #72

NEB scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	1.8 #124	3.5 #122	5.3 #131	7.0 #53	9.5 #23	16.5 #37
MICH allowed	1.8 #11	1.5 #1	3.3 #1	0.0 #1	2.5 #9	2.5 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.