Rutgers @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Rutgers

3-0 · Power #51

final

Final

Michigan

3-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -24

Push

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 10–32 MICH

✓ MICH (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -24

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -24

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -24

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like MICH as a 24-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 4, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 31–7; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 4 similar games. 38 points stayed under 44.5, as in 2 of 4.

Favorite won

4 of 4100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

1 of 425%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 23.5 against an average line of 22.3; 46.5 points a game (usually 55). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MICH vs RUTG 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-20.25	20–13	L	U50
Loose	ND vs USF 2020 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-23	52–0	W	O49
Loose	UGA vs UK 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & rest	-21.5	30–13	L	U44.5
Loose	MD vs CLT 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-24.5	38–20	L	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG WWW	3-0	100%	—	—
MICH LLL	0-3	0%	0-3	0-3

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG UUO	1-2	33%	3-0
MICH UUU	0-3	0%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTGlast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%
MICHlast 3	3-0 100%	0-3 0%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+1.6 →+4.2▲ 2.6#43

MICH+8.4 →+15.9▲ 7.5#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

RUTG

Longer bar = better

MICH

#82

Offense

MICH better ▶

#24

#45

Defense

MICH better ▶

+0.8 #31

Turnovers

◀ RUTG better

0.0 #70

60 plays #123

Pace

Even

57 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	RUTG off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #88	5.8 #1	MICH
Yards / play	5.40 #91	4.35 #18	MICH
PPA / play	+0.18 #55	−0.20 #4	MICH
Success rate	40% #93	24% #1	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #53	15.3 #27	RUTG
Yards / play	7.11 #18	4.64 #36	Even
PPA / play	+0.40 #11	−0.01 #42	MICH
Success rate	54% #15	41% #75	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	7.0 #47	10.0 #57	17.0 #49	2.3 #115	12.3 #10	14.7 #58
MICH allowed	0.0 #1	2.0 #6	2.0 #2	0.0 #1	3.3 #25	3.3 #5

MICH scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	7.0 #47	12.3 #32	19.3 #36	12.7 #7	0.0 #129	12.7 #72
RUTG allowed	0.0 #1	1.0 #2	1.0 #1	2.3 #19	6.7 #72	9.0 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.