Florida State @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Clemson · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F3 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Florida State

3-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Clemson

2-1 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

FSU -2

✓ FSU W

Total

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 29–27 CLEM

✓ FSU (54%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -2

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFSU -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFSU -2

Total56

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 2-point road favorite at CLEM, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 31–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 56, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 2.7; 58.1 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU @ MSST 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	28–25	W	U55
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	29–28	L	U58
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Close	SMU @ HOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	37–44	L	O61.5
Close	TEX @ KSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-3	34–27	W	O54.5
Close	PITT @ GT 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3	52–21	W	O57.5
Close	TEX @ ARK 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-6	21–40	L	O57.5
Close	ISU @ TEX 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	U58
Close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	1-1
CLEM LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	—

Venue/role: FSU away, as favorite; CLEM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU –OO	2-0	100%	3-0
CLEM –OO	2-0	100%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 46% of games with totals 52–60 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSUlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	2-0 100%
CLEMlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

FSU 21–17 CLEM FSU leads · 38 games since 1970 · CLEM has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+6.4 →+14.0▲ 7.6#12

CLEM−4.1 →+11.9▲ 16.0#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

FSU

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#35

Offense

Even

#44

#69

Defense

CLEM better ▶

#30

+0.5 #47

Turnovers

◀ FSU better

0.0 #80

63 plays #110

Pace

CLEM faster ▶

79 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Even matchup

	FSU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #10	22.5 #62	FSU
Yards / play	6.84 #23	4.22 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #33	−0.06 #25	Even
Success rate	42% #72	34% #22	CLEM

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: CLEM offense

	CLEM off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #33	22.5 #61	CLEM
Yards / play	6.02 #55	5.72 #90	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	+0.08 #73	Even
Success rate	53% #15	38% #50	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	8.0 #37	12.7 #28	20.7 #28	15.0 #2	11.7 #13	26.7 #2
CLEM allowed	5.7 #90	2.0 #6	7.7 #35	2.3 #19	9.7 #113	12.0 #77

CLEM scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	11.3 #13	10.3 #52	21.7 #25	11.7 #10	7.0 #63	18.7 #24
FSU allowed	4.7 #70	5.3 #47	10.0 #56	4.3 #54	7.7 #94	12.0 #77

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.