Wisconsin @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Fri, Sep 22, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

2-1 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

1-2 · Power #66

final

Closing spread

WIS -6

✓ WIS W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 31–25 PUR

✓ WIS (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -6

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWIS -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -6

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 6-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 38–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 6.4; 58.9 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7	28–34	L	O49.5
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-5	23–26	L	U53
Very close	TEX @ KSU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	69–31	W	O53.5
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-8	48–31	W	O54.5
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Very close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25
Very close	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
PUR LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: WIS away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
PUR –UU	0-2	0%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 41% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WISlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
PURlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+6.6 →+10.5▲ 3.9#21

PUR−4.2 →+0.8▲ 5.0#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

WIS

Longer bar = better

PUR

#54

Offense

◀ WIS better

#85

#59

Defense

◀ WIS better

#89

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

◀ WIS better

0.0 #68

70 plays #46

Pace

PUR faster ▶

73 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: WIS offense

	WIS off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #57	30.3 #108	WIS
Yards / play	6.33 #38	5.69 #88	WIS
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	+0.11 #85	Even
Success rate	47% #44	40% #75	WIS

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	PUR off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #82	20.7 #58	WIS
Yards / play	5.47 #88	5.04 #56	WIS
PPA / play	+0.07 #94	−0.02 #41	WIS
Success rate	42% #75	41% #81	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	3.3 #99	6.7 #98	10.0 #109	16.0 #2	5.7 #79	21.7 #10
PUR allowed	4.7 #69	13.7 #123	18.3 #112	2.7 #38	9.3 #107	12.0 #78

PUR scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	4.7 #78	10.3 #52	15.0 #67	4.7 #92	6.7 #68	11.3 #86
WIS allowed	4.7 #69	9.0 #90	13.7 #89	2.3 #19	4.7 #42	7.0 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.