Maryland @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff73°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Maryland

3-0 · Power #27

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

2-1 · Power #98

final

Closing spread

MD -7

✓ MD W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 28–21 MSU

✓ MD (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -7

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMD -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMD -7

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MD as a 7-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MD won 31–9; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 6.4; 49.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Close	PITT @ VT 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.25	28–7	W	U55.75
Close	UTAH @ BYU 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	17–26	L	U50
Close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Close	ISU @ KSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	33–20	W	O51
Close	LIB @ SYR 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	21–24	L	U54
Close	WISC @ MSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	28–34	L	O49.5
Close	GAST @ CLT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-6.25	41–25	W	O52
Close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	45–3	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD LLW	1-2	33%	—	1-2
MSU WWL	2-1	67%	2-1	0-1

Venue/role: MD away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
MSU –OU	1-1	50%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 56% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MDlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
MSUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+3.0 →+6.2▲ 3.2#32

MSU+7.2 →−2.9▼ 10.1#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

MSU

#23

Offense

◀ MD better

#74

#39

Defense

◀ MD better

#83

+1.3 #16

Turnovers

◀ MD better

0.0 #62

70 plays #42

Pace

◀ MD faster

62 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MD offense

	MD off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #28	20.7 #58	MD
Yards / play	6.86 #25	5.86 #101	MD
PPA / play	+0.39 #15	+0.11 #86	MD
Success rate	52% #24	42% #88	MD

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MD defense

	MSU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #78	13.3 #21	MD
Yards / play	6.05 #58	5.02 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #82	−0.04 #36	MD
Success rate	41% #79	36% #46	MD

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

MD scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	9.3 #22	7.7 #88	17.0 #47	7.3 #51	15.0 #2	22.3 #6
MSU allowed	4.7 #74	9.3 #96	14.0 #94	2.0 #19	4.7 #44	6.7 #19

MSU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	2.3 #112	6.7 #101	9.0 #114	9.3 #26	9.3 #32	18.7 #23
MD allowed	9.3 #123	1.0 #1	10.3 #61	1.0 #12	2.0 #3	3.0 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.