NC State @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Fri, Sep 22, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F11 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

NC State

2-1 · Power #38

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

0-3 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

NCSU -8.5

✓ UVA W

Total

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 30–20 UVA

✓ NCSU (75%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNCSU -8.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNCSU -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNCSU -8.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as an 8.5-point road favorite at UVA, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 24–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 47, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.1 against an average line of 8.5; 43.9 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAL @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	3–10	L	U47
Very close	PITT @ WMU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	34–13	W	O46
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Close	HOU @ RICE 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	41–43	L	O51
Close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Close	TULN @ USM 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-7.75	21–3	W	U47.5
Close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	42–7	W	O44.5
Close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Close	MIA @ VT 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-9	20–14	L	U48.25
Close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2
UVA LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-2

Venue/role: NCSU away, as favorite; UVA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU –OU	1-1	50%	2-1
UVA OOO	3-0	100%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 56% of games with totals 43–51 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSUlast 3	2-1 67%	0-3 0%	1-1 50%
UVAlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+5.0 →+4.0▼ 1.0#44

UVA−11.2 →−10.3▲ 0.9#118

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NCSU

Longer bar = better

UVA

#65

Offense

◀ NCSU better

#114

#82

Defense

◀ NCSU better

#130

0.0 #60

Turnovers

◀ NCSU better

−1.3 #127

76 plays #13

Pace

◀ NCSU faster

65 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #62	42.3 #130	NCSU
Yards / play	5.31 #98	6.39 #123	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #67	+0.39 #133	NCSU
Success rate	49% #34	52% #132	NCSU

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: NCSU defense

	UVA off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #109	22.0 #64	NCSU
Yards / play	4.90 #111	5.79 #94	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #105	+0.15 #104	Even
Success rate	32% #132	39% #64	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	9.3 #23	6.7 #99	16.0 #55	10.3 #17	4.7 #92	15.0 #48
UVA allowed	10.3 #123	7.0 #72	17.3 #108	9.3 #115	15.7 #130	25.0 #128

UVA scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	7.0 #48	3.3 #119	10.3 #106	9.3 #25	1.0 #125	10.3 #97
NCSU allowed	3.3 #46	4.7 #37	8.0 #38	7.0 #91	7.0 #78	14.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.