Virginia @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Boston College · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

0-4 · Power #85

final

Final

Boston College

1-3 · Power #75

▲ winner

Closing spread

BC -5

✓ UVA W

Total

Push · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 23–28 BC

✓ BC (63%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBC -5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBC -5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51

Line context

Home favorites of 3–7 since 2023: won 61%, covered 50% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBC -5

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BC as a 5-point home favorite against UVA, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BC won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points landed on 51, as in 0 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.9 against an average line of 5.1; 44.1 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Very close	MTSU vs CSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	23–31	L	O50
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5	13–9	L	U48
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	CLT vs RICE 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	31–24	W	O52.25
Very close	RUTG vs ILL 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	24–20	W	U50.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA LWLW	2-2	50%	0-1	2-2
BC LLWL	1-3	25%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: UVA away, as underdog; BC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OOOU	3-1	75%	0-4
BC OOOO	4-0	100%	1-3

In 133 games with totals 47–55, 56% went over; 5% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 41% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVAlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
BClast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−11.2 →−8.2▲ 3.0#104

BC−0.4 →−6.8▼ 6.4#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UVA

Longer bar = better

#114

Offense

BC better ▶

#73

#124

Defense

Even

#124

−1.3 #127

Turnovers

BC better ▶

+0.5 #40

66 plays #74

Pace

BC faster ▶

70 plays #36

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #115	35.5 #122	Even
Yards / play	5.03 #109	6.63 #129	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #101	+0.26 #124	UVA
Success rate	35% #131	47% #119	Even

When BC has the ball

Advantage: BC offense

	BC off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #76	37.8 #128	BC
Yards / play	5.70 #68	6.00 #106	BC
PPA / play	+0.19 #50	+0.33 #130	BC
Success rate	39% #97	49% #130	BC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	5.3 #74	4.3 #120	9.5 #118	8.5 #36	2.8 #125	11.3 #91
BC allowed	4.3 #60	15.8 #133	20.0 #123	10.5 #127	3.5 #19	14.0 #99

BC scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	3.5 #107	8.5 #72	12.0 #89	5.0 #87	10.3 #16	15.3 #52
UVA allowed	7.8 #116	8.8 #91	16.5 #108	8.8 #114	12.5 #129	21.3 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.