Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

1-3 · Power #77

final

Final

Virginia Tech

1-3 · Power #41

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -3

✓ VT W

Total

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 22–20 VT

✗ PITT (57%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePITT -3

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePITT -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePITT -3

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 3-point road favorite at VT, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 38–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 40, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 2.9; 45.4 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU @ WYO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–31	L	O41.5
Very close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Very close	RUTG @ ILL 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-1.5	20–14	W	U41.5
Very close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Very close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Very close	FAU @ GASO 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	3–20	L	U40.5
Very close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Very close	TOL @ SDSU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–17	L	U44.5
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	SJSU @ SDSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.25	27–43	L	O41

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WLLL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-1
VT WLLL	1-3	25%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: PITT away, as favorite; VT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OOUO	3-1	75%	1-3
VT OUOU	2-2	50%	1-3

Went over in Q3. Of 17 earlier overs in games with totals 36–44, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITTlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	3-1 75%
VTlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+3.7 →−1.3▼ 5.0#68

VT+3.6 →−4.3▼ 7.9#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

PITT

Longer bar = better

#115

Offense

Even

#117

#31

Defense

◀ PITT better

#58

−1.0 #125

Turnovers

VT better ▶

0.0 #84

64 plays #99

Pace

VT faster ▶

68 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	PITT off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #98	25.0 #72	VT
Yards / play	4.98 #116	5.22 #51	VT
PPA / play	−0.12 #135	+0.06 #62	VT
Success rate	38% #109	38% #46	VT

When VT has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	VT off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #107	23.0 #54	PITT
Yards / play	4.86 #120	4.58 #20	PITT
PPA / play	−0.05 #128	−0.03 #33	PITT
Success rate	38% #114	34% #18	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	6.0 #62	8.5 #74	14.5 #72	4.3 #102	5.3 #95	9.5 #111
VT allowed	3.5 #47	12.8 #125	16.3 #104	3.5 #38	5.3 #49	8.8 #30

VT scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	2.3 #123	9.3 #61	11.5 #100	5.3 #88	4.8 #107	10.0 #108
PITT allowed	4.3 #58	9.5 #102	13.8 #84	7.5 #103	1.8 #3	9.3 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.