Clemson @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Syracuse · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Clemson

2-2 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Syracuse

4-0 · Power #82

final

Closing spread

CLEM -7

✓ CLEM W

Total

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 30–24 SYR

✓ CLEM (65%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -7

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCLEM -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCLEM -7

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 7-point road favorite at SYR, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 31–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 6.2; 55.8 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ISU @ BAY 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	29–31	L	O46
Close	WIS @ WSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	22–31	L	U58
Close	LSU @ MSST 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	41–14	W	O54
Close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Close	TEX @ ARK 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	21–40	L	O57.5
Loose	UTAH @ BYU 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & total	-7	17–26	L	U50
Loose	IOWA @ MD 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	51–14	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM LLWL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-2
SYR WWWP	3-0-1	100%	2-0-1	—

Venue/role: CLEM away, as favorite; SYR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM –OOU	2-1	67%	2-2
SYR OUUU	1-3	25%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 48–56 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEMlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	2-1 67%
SYRlast 4	4-0 100%	3-0-1 100%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM−4.1 →+11.2▲ 15.3#19

SYR+6.3 →+9.4▲ 3.1#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CLEM

Longer bar = better

SYR

#43

Offense

SYR better ▶

#24

#27

Defense

SYR better ▶

0.0 #83

Turnovers

SYR better ▶

+1.3 #13

79 plays #6

Pace

Even

75 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: SYR defense

	CLEM off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #32	10.8 #6	SYR
Yards / play	6.02 #55	3.97 #2	SYR
PPA / play	+0.13 #71	−0.13 #5	SYR
Success rate	53% #15	34% #18	Even

When SYR has the ball

Even matchup

	SYR off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	44.3 #6	22.5 #58	SYR
Yards / play	6.77 #28	4.22 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #32	−0.06 #23	Even
Success rate	48% #31	34% #19	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	9.3 #24	11.3 #35	20.5 #24	10.5 #15	5.3 #90	15.8 #48
SYR allowed	3.5 #46	2.5 #6	6.0 #16	1.8 #10	3.0 #14	4.8 #9

SYR scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	11.8 #10	14.8 #9	26.5 #6	11.0 #12	6.8 #70	17.8 #29
CLEM allowed	4.3 #63	5.0 #40	9.3 #50	4.3 #52	7.3 #87	11.5 #70

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.