Bowling Green @ Georgia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Georgia Tech

Weather at kickoff84°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

1-3 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

Georgia Tech

2-2 · Power #53

final

Closing spread

GT -21

✓ BGSU W

Total

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 17–38 GT

✗ GT (93%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGT -21

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGT -21

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGT -21

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GT as a 21-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: BGSU won 38–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 49, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 27 against an average line of 21.1; 50.4 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Very close	ND vs NAVY 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-21	34–6	W	U47.5
Very close	ORST vs COLO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-23	42–9	W	O47.5
Very close	MEM vs TEM 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-18.5	24–3	W	U50
Very close	AFA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-18.5	48–14	W	O49.5
Close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-24	34–7	W	U51
Close	USC vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	41–34	L	O55.5
Close	TLSA vs TEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-22	44–10	W	O50.5
Close	TCU vs LT 2020 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-21.5	52–10	W	O50
Close	LOU vs SYR 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-19.5	30–0	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1
GT WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; GT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU –OUU	1-2	33%	1-3
GT –OOU	2-1	67%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 60 earlier overs in games with totals 45–53, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSUlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	1-2 33%
GTlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−3.0 →−12.2▼ 9.2#123

GT−2.1 →+2.3▲ 4.4#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BGSU

Longer bar = better

#118

Offense

GT better ▶

#40

#99

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#120

−1.3 #128

Turnovers

GT better ▶

+0.8 #24

59 plays #126

Pace

GT faster ▶

71 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #122	29.0 #103	Even
Yards / play	5.31 #97	6.50 #125	BGSU
PPA / play	−0.11 #132	+0.24 #121	Even
Success rate	36% #120	49% #129	Even

When GT has the ball

Advantage: GT offense

	GT off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #44	29.5 #105	GT
Yards / play	6.74 #29	5.94 #103	GT
PPA / play	+0.26 #36	+0.14 #95	GT
Success rate	44% #52	43% #91	GT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	1.8 #124	8.5 #72	10.3 #110	5.0 #88	3.5 #116	8.5 #120
GT allowed	4.8 #73	3.3 #10	8.0 #32	9.3 #121	11.8 #128	21.0 #128

GT scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	5.3 #76	14.5 #10	19.8 #27	6.0 #71	8.0 #53	14.0 #58
BGSU allowed	10.3 #125	10.0 #104	20.3 #125	7.8 #107	1.5 #1	9.3 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.