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NCAAF · 1st half

NCAAF first-half lines & halftime results · 2023 Week 5

NCAAF 1st half2023 Week 5: 56 of 56 games final. Favorites went 27-27 against the first-half spread, and halftime totals went 29 over, 24 under.How 1st-half lines work ⓘ
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Thursday, Sep 28

3
1H finalConf · est. line
Middle Tennessee
1H ATS 2-2 · #99
3
Western Kentucky
1H ATS 0-4 · #83
23
1H spread
WKU -4
✓ WKU W ATS
1H total
31.5
▼ Under 26
Projected
14–17
✓ WKU led
Trend: Fast starter edge: MTSU ✗ Model: MTSU by 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Temple
1H ATS 1-3 · #128
3
Tulsa
1H ATS 2-2 · #118
21
1H spread
TLSA -2
✓ TLSA W ATS
1H total
29
▼ Under 24
Projected
13–14
✓ TLSA led
Model: TEM by 0.5 ✗ Model: Under 2 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Jacksonville State
1H ATS 4-0 · #69
7
Sam Houston
1H ATS 2-1 · #114
21
1H spread
JXST -4
✓ SHSU W ATS
1H total
18.5
▲ Over 28
Projected
11–9
✗ JXST did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: JXST ✗ Model: SHSU by 2 ✓ Model: Over 1 ✓

Friday, Sep 29

4
1H finalConf · est. line
Louisville
1H ATS 3-1 · #21
0
NC State
1H ATS 2-2 · #38
10
1H spread
LOU -2
✓ NCSU W ATS
1H total
29.5
▼ Under 10
Projected
16–14
✗ LOU did not lead
Model: NCSU by 0.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Utah
1H ATS 2-2 · #33
0
Oregon State
1H ATS 2-2 · #20
7
1H spread
ORST -2.5
✓ ORST W ATS
1H total
22.5
▼ Under 7
Projected
10–14
✓ ORST led
Model: ORST by 1 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Louisiana Tech
1H ATS 2-3 · #116
17
UTEP
1H ATS 1-4 · #115
7
1H spread
LT -1
✓ LT W ATS
1H total
25.5
▼ Under 24
Projected
13–15
✗ UTEP did not lead
Trend: Fade a cold 1st-half team: LT ✓ Model: UTEP by 2 ✗ Model: Over 2.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Cincinnati
1H ATS 3-1 · #76
10
BYU
1H ATS 3-1 · #86
14
1H spread
PK
✓ BYU W ATS
1H total
25
▼ Under 24
Projected
12–12
 
Model: Under 0.5 ✓

Saturday, Sep 30

49
1H finalConf · est. line
Penn State
1H ATS 3-1 · #5
10
Northwestern
1H ATS 0-3-1 · #65
10
1H spread
PSU -16
✓ NU W ATS
1H total
25
▼ Under 20
Projected
19–7
 
Model: NU by 4.5 ✓ Model: Over 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
USC
1H ATS 2-2 · #23
34
Colorado
1H ATS 2-2 · #72
14
1H spread
USC -13.5
✓ USC W ATS
1H total
38.5
▲ Over 48
Projected
21–17
✓ USC led
Model: COLO by 9 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Florida
1H ATS 1-3 · #36
7
Kentucky
1H ATS 2-2 · #44
23
1H spread
UK -0.5
✓ UK W ATS
1H total
23
▲ Over 30
Projected
12–13
 
Model: FLA by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✓
1H finalNeutral · est. line
Texas A&M
1H ATS 2-2 · #17
17
Arkansas
1H ATS 2-2 · #59
6
1H spread
TA&M -4
✓ TA&M W ATS
1H total
28
▼ Under 23
Projected
19–10
✓ TA&M led
Model: TA&M by 4.5 ✓ Model: Over 1 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
Louisiana
1H ATS 2-2 · #87
17
Minnesota
1H ATS 1-3 · #79
14
1H spread
MINN -5.5
✓ UL W ATS
1H total
25.5
▲ Over 31
Projected
12–15
✗ MINN did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: UL ✓ Model: UL by 2 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
Utah State
1H ATS 1-2-1 · #100
7
UConn
1H ATS 1-3 · #125
17
1H spread
USU -2.5
✓ CONN W ATS
1H total
26.5
▼ Under 24
Projected
14–13
✗ USU did not lead
Model: CONN by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Clemson
1H ATS 2-2 · #19
21
Syracuse
1H ATS 3-1 · #82
7
1H spread
CLEM -4
✓ CLEM W ATS
1H total
27
▲ Over 28
Projected
14–14
✗ SYR did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: SYR ✗ Model: SYR by 4.5 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
UAB
1H ATS 2-2 · #102
20
Tulane
1H ATS 3-1 · #55
14
1H spread
TULN -13.5
✓ UAB W ATS
1H total
31
▲ Over 34
Projected
10–17
✗ TULN did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: UAB ✓ Model: UAB by 6.5 ✓ Model: Under 4 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
South Alabama
1H ATS 1-3 · #49
7
James Madison
1H ATS 2-2 · #28
24
1H spread
JMU -0.5
✓ JMU W ATS
1H total
25
▲ Over 31
Projected
10–16
✓ JMU led
Model: JMU by 5 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Buffalo
1H ATS 1-3 · #119
7
Akron
1H ATS 3-1 · #130
10
1H spread
AKR -2
✓ AKR W ATS
1H total
27.5
▼ Under 17
Projected
13–15
✓ AKR led
1H finalConf · est. line
Eastern Michigan
1H ATS 3-1 · #126
10
Central Michigan
1H ATS 4-0 · #122
14
1H spread
CMU -6
✓ EMU W ATS
1H total
23
▲ Over 24
Projected
12–14
✓ CMU led
Trend: Fast starter edge: EMU ✓ Model: EMU by 4 ✓ Model: Over 2.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Virginia
1H ATS 2-2 · #85
21
Boston College
1H ATS 2-2 · #75
7
1H spread
BC -3
✓ UVA W ATS
1H total
26.5
▲ Over 28
Projected
12–15
✗ BC did not lead
Model: UVA by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 0.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Miami (OH)
1H ATS 2-2 · #78
13
Kent State
1H ATS 2-2 · #133
3
1H spread
M-OH -8.5
✓ M-OH W ATS
1H total
26
▼ Under 16
Projected
17–9
✓ M-OH led
Model: Over 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Arizona State
1H ATS 2-2 · #101
7
California
1H ATS 2-2 · #57
10
1H spread
CAL -7.5
✓ ASU W ATS
1H total
24.5
▼ Under 17
Projected
8–18
✓ CAL led
Trend: Fast starter edge: ASU ✓ Model: CAL by 3 ✗ Model: Over 1.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Georgia
1H ATS 1-3 · #1
10
Auburn
1H ATS 2-2 · #40
10
1H spread
UGA -8.5
✓ AUB W ATS
1H total
23
▼ Under 20
Projected
15–12
 
Trend: Fast starter edge: AUB ✓ Model: AUB by 4.5 ✓ Model: Over 4 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Michigan
1H ATS 1-3 · #3
28
Nebraska
1H ATS 2-2 · #62
0
1H spread
MICH -10.5
✓ MICH W ATS
1H total
21
▲ Over 28
Projected
14–6
✓ MICH led
Model: NEB by 2.5 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Kansas
1H ATS 1-3 · #24
7
Texas
1H ATS 2-2 · #8
13
1H spread
TEX -9
✓ KU W ATS
1H total
32
▼ Under 20
Projected
11–20
✓ TEX led
Trend: Fast starter edge: KU ✓ Model: Under 2 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Indiana
1H ATS 1-3 · #89
3
Maryland
1H ATS 2-2 · #27
27
1H spread
MD -8.5
✓ MD W ATS
1H total
26
▲ Over 30
Projected
8–18
✓ MD led
Model: MD by 1 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Illinois
1H ATS 0-4 · #67
13
Purdue
1H ATS 1-2-1 · #66
16
1H spread
PK
✓ PUR W ATS
1H total
28
▲ Over 29
Projected
13–15
✓ PUR led
Model: PUR by 1.5 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
Bowling Green
1H ATS 1-3 · #80
17
Georgia Tech
1H ATS 3-1 · #53
14
1H spread
GT -12.5
✓ BGSU W ATS
1H total
25.5
▲ Over 31
Projected
9–20
✗ GT did not lead
Model: BGSU by 1.5 ✓ Model: Over 3 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Houston
1H ATS 2-2 · #88
28
Texas Tech
1H ATS 1-3 · #45
35
1H spread
TTU -5.5
✓ TTU W ATS
1H total
27
▲ Over 63
Projected
10–18
✓ TTU led
Model: TTU by 2.5 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Baylor
1H ATS 1-3 · #93
7
UCF
1H ATS 2-2 · #31
28
1H spread
UCF -4.5
✓ UCF W ATS
1H total
29
▲ Over 35
Projected
11–18
✓ UCF led
Trend: Fast starter edge: UCF ✓ Model: UCF by 2.5 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
Arkansas State
1H ATS 2-2 · #107
31
Massachusetts
1H ATS 1-4 · #127
10
1H spread
MASS -1.5
✓ ARST W ATS
1H total
29
▲ Over 41
Projected
13–16
✗ MASS did not lead
Trend: Fade a cold 1st-half team: ARST ✓ Model: MASS by 1.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
South Florida
1H ATS 3-1 · #95
23
Navy
1H ATS 1-2 · #108
20
1H spread
NAVY -2
✓ USF W ATS
1H total
28
▲ Over 43
Projected
10–16
✗ NAVY did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: USF ✓ Model: NAVY by 4.5 ✗ Model: Under 2 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Old Dominion
1H ATS 3-0 · #97
21
Marshall
1H ATS 1-2 · #96
17
1H spread
MRSH -8.5
✓ ODU W ATS
1H total
24.5
▲ Over 38
Projected
9–16
✗ MRSH did not lead
Trend: Fast starter edge: ODU ✓ Model: ODU by 0.5 ✓ Model: Over 0.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Ball State
1H ATS 0-4 · #113
10
Western Michigan
1H ATS 3-1 · #120
28
1H spread
WMU -1
✓ WMU W ATS
1H total
26
▲ Over 38
Projected
13–14
✓ WMU led
Model: BALL by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Northern Illinois
1H ATS 1-3 · #94
7
Toledo
1H ATS 2-2 · #58
14
1H spread
TOL -8
✓ NIU W ATS
1H total
25
▼ Under 21
Projected
8–18
✓ TOL led
Model: TOL by 2 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Missouri
1H ATS 3-1 · #12
17
Vanderbilt
1H ATS 0-5 · #111
7
1H spread
MIZ -8.5
✓ MIZ W ATS
1H total
28
▼ Under 24
Projected
17–11
✓ MIZ led
Trend: Fade a cold 1st-half team: MIZ ✓ Model: VAN by 2.5 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✓
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
Boise State
1H ATS 2-2 · #48
17
Memphis
1H ATS 1-3 · #50
14
1H spread
MEM -2
✓ BOIS W ATS
1H total
30
▲ Over 31
Projected
11–19
✗ MEM did not lead
Model: MEM by 6 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Hawai'i
1H ATS 1-4 · #123
3
UNLV
1H ATS 4-0 · #68
20
1H spread
UNLV -6
✓ UNLV W ATS
1H total
30
▼ Under 23
Projected
11–19
✓ UNLV led
Trend: Fade a cold 1st-half team: UNLV ✓ Model: UNLV by 1.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
New Mexico
1H ATS 2-2 · #117
9
Wyoming
1H ATS 2-2 · #74
12
1H spread
WYO -8.5
✓ UNM W ATS
1H total
21
Push 21
Projected
9–14
✓ WYO led
Trend: Fast starter edge: UNM ✓ Model: UNM by 2.5 ✓ Model: Over 2
1H finalConf · est. line
LSU
1H ATS 2-2 · #10
28
Ole Miss
1H ATS 2-2 · #16
31
1H spread
LSU -2
✓ MISS W ATS
1H total
35
▲ Over 59
Projected
16–17
✓ MISS led
Model: MISS by 3 ✓ Model: Under 2.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Oregon
1H ATS 4-0 · #2
14
Stanford
1H ATS 2-2 · #106
6
1H spread
ORE -16
✓ STAN W ATS
1H total
31
▼ Under 20
Projected
24–8
✓ ORE led
Model: ORE by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Iowa State
1H ATS 2-2 · #35
20
Oklahoma
1H ATS 3-1 · #9
40
1H spread
OU -11.5
✓ OU W ATS
1H total
25
▲ Over 60
Projected
4–20
✓ OU led
Model: OU by 4.5 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
East Carolina
1H ATS 3-1 · #110
9
Rice
1H ATS 3-1 · #90
10
1H spread
RICE -2
✓ ECU W ATS
1H total
24
▼ Under 19
Projected
11–15
✓ RICE led
Model: RICE by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Coastal Carolina
1H ATS 2-2 · #70
14
Georgia Southern
1H ATS 4-0 · #92
21
1H spread
GASO -3.5
✓ GASO W ATS
1H total
35
Push 35
Projected
14–17
✓ GASO led
Model: CCU by 1.5 ✗ Model: Under 4
1H finalConf · est. line
Troy
1H ATS 1-3 · #29
6
Georgia State
1H ATS 3-1 · #91
7
1H spread
GAST -0.5
✓ GAST W ATS
1H total
26.5
▼ Under 13
Projected
13–15
✓ GAST led
Trend: Fast starter edge: GAST ✓ Model: GAST by 2.5 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Texas State
1H ATS 3-1 · #73
42
Southern Miss
1H ATS 1-3 · #121
10
1H spread
TXST -4
✓ TXST W ATS
1H total
31
▲ Over 52
Projected
16–14
✓ TXST led
Model: USM by 2 ✗ Model: Under 1 ✗
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
Notre Dame
1H ATS 3-2 · #6
10
Duke
1H ATS 2-1-1 · #37
0
1H spread
ND -3
✓ ND W ATS
1H total
27.5
▼ Under 10
Projected
14–13
✓ ND led
Model: DUKE by 2 ✗ Model: Under 0.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
South Carolina
1H ATS 2-2 · #47
10
Tennessee
1H ATS 2-2 · #15
24
1H spread
TENN -7
✓ TENN W ATS
1H total
30.5
▲ Over 34
Projected
10–20
✓ TENN led
Trend: Fast starter edge: SC ✗ Model: TENN by 2.5 ✓ Model: Under 0.5 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Michigan State
1H ATS 0-3-1 · #98
9
Iowa
1H ATS 1-2-1 · #54
10
1H spread
IOWA -6
✓ MSU W ATS
1H total
19
Push 19
Projected
7–12
✓ IOWA led
1H finalConf · est. line
Charlotte
1H ATS 2-1-1 · #124
3
SMU
1H ATS 2-1-1 · #22
17
1H spread
SMU -13.5
✓ SMU W ATS
1H total
27.5
▼ Under 20
Projected
7–19
✓ SMU led
Trend: Fast starter edge: CLT ✗ Model: CLT by 1 ✗ Model: Under 1.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Pittsburgh
1H ATS 2-2 · #77
7
Virginia Tech
1H ATS 0-3-1 · #41
21
1H spread
PITT -2
✓ VT W ATS
1H total
21
▲ Over 28
Projected
11–11
 
Trend: 1st-half over teams: Over ✓ Model: VT by 2 ✓ Model: Over 1 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
West Virginia
1H ATS 3-1 · #39
14
TCU
1H ATS 1-2-1 · #30
21
1H spread
TCU -8.5
✓ WVU W ATS
1H total
27
▲ Over 35
Projected
10–17
✓ TCU led
Trend: Fast starter edge: WVU ✓ Model: WVU by 2 ✓ Model: Over 0.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
App State
1H ATS 2-2 · #61
28
UL Monroe
1H ATS 1-2 · #129
28
1H spread
APP -8
✓ ULM W ATS
1H total
26.5
▲ Over 56
Projected
15–13
 
Trend: Fast starter edge: ULM ✓ Model: ULM by 6.5 ✓ Model: Over 1.5 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
San Diego State
1H ATS 3-2 · #112
10
Air Force
1H ATS 2-2 · #52
21
1H spread
AFA -6
✓ AFA W ATS
1H total
22.5
▲ Over 31
Projected
4–18
✓ AFA led
Trend: 1st-half over teams: Over ✓ Model: AFA by 8 ✓ Model: Under 1 ✗
1H finalConf · est. line
Alabama
1H ATS 1-3 · #7
31
Mississippi State
1H ATS 2-2 · #64
10
1H spread
ALA -9.5
✓ ALA W ATS
1H total
23.5
▲ Over 41
Projected
17–9
✓ ALA led
Trend: Fast starter edge: MSST ✗ Model: MSST by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 2 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Washington
1H ATS 3-1 · #13
21
Arizona
1H ATS 1-3 · #18
10
1H spread
WASH -11.5
✓ ARIZ W ATS
1H total
34.5
▼ Under 31
Projected
21–12
✓ WASH led
Model: ARIZ by 3 ✓ Model: Under 2 ✓
1H finalConf · est. line
Nevada
1H ATS 2-2 · #132
0
Fresno State
1H ATS 2-2 · #71
14
1H spread
FRES -15
✓ NEV W ATS
1H total
26.5
▼ Under 14
Projected
5–22
✓ FRES led
Trend: Fast starter edge: NEV ✓ Model: FRES by 2 ✗ Model: Over 1 ✗
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StatusMatchup1H spreadMove1H totalModelTrendDetails
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1H ATS: the team's 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line. Away team listed first. Spread edge = the model's 1st-half line minus the 1H spread (Total edge: the model's 1H total minus the 1H total), in points; a lean starts at 2 pts (3 on the total) and is context only. Projections use only games played before that week. Trends use each team's 1st halves earlier this season; dot = backtest status ( proven edge, above break-even but not proven, no edge). est. lines are estimated from the full-game line.
1H ATS leans (backtest)
1117-1157 (49.1%)
No edge 2016–26 · break-even 52.4%
1H O/U leans (backtest)
313-299 (51.1%)
No edge 3+ pt edges
Halftime leader picked
69.7%
7,953 games, walk-forward
This week
27-27 fav 1H ATS
O/U 29-24 · leans 16-6 ATS, 1-2 O/U

2023 team 1st-half records

Against the 1st-half line (real or estimated), halftime over/under and halftime leads
TeamGP1H ATSCover %1H O-ULed-trailed1H PF1H PA1H margin
Missouri State 1 1-0 100% 0-1 0-1 10.0 17.0 -7.0
Sacramento State 1 1-0 100% 0-1 1-0 17.0 14.0 +3.0
Kennesaw State 1 1-0 100% 1-0 1-0 21.0 7.0 +14.0
Missouri 13 10-3 76.9% 3-8-1 11-1-1 16.2 7.8 +8.4
West Virginia 13 10-3 76.9% 8-4 9-4 17.9 12.1 +5.8
Miami (OH) 14 9-3-2 75% 6-5-1 11-3 13.6 8.6 +4.9
Old Dominion 13 9-3 75% 6-5 6-5-2 11.3 12.6 -1.3
Northwestern 13 9-3-1 75% 4-9 6-4-3 10.4 9.6 +0.8
Liberty 14 10-4 71.4% 9-2-1 10-1-3 22.4 13.1 +9.3
Boise State 14 10-4 71.4% 6-5-1 10-3-1 18.6 13.0 +5.6
Miami 13 9-4 69.2% 7-4 8-3-2 15.4 9.2 +6.2
Georgia Tech 13 9-4 69.2% 5-6 5-7-1 15.8 13.0 +2.8
Bowling Green 13 9-4 69.2% 8-2-1 9-4 15.8 12.2 +3.7
Kansas State 13 9-4 69.2% 9-3 9-4 20.7 11.9 +8.8
Texas State 13 9-4 69.2% 7-5 9-3-1 22.2 15.5 +6.6
Western Michigan 12 8-4 66.7% 8-4 5-7 12.7 16.3 -3.7
UConn 12 8-4 66.7% 4-6 5-7 9.8 14.8 -5.1
East Carolina 12 8-4 66.7% 3-9 4-6-2 11.7 12.6 -0.9
Washington State 12 8-4 66.7% 6-5 7-4-1 20.5 12.7 +7.8
Oregon 14 9-5 64.3% 6-7-1 12-2 26.3 9.3 +17.0
UNLV 14 9-5 64.3% 8-6 8-6 17.6 14.9 +2.7
Akron 12 7-4-1 63.6% 3-6-1 4-6-2 8.8 11.9 -3.1
Army 12 7-4 63.6% 5-4 8-4 12.8 9.8 +3.1
Jacksonville State 13 8-5 61.5% 5-8 5-6-2 14.2 12.0 +2.2
San José State 13 8-5 61.5% 5-6 7-4-2 16.8 11.6 +5.2
Georgia State 13 8-5 61.5% 6-7 9-4 16.4 12.9 +3.5
NC State 13 8-5 61.5% 4-7 9-4 14.9 9.2 +5.7
Eastern Michigan 13 8-5 61.5% 7-5 5-6-2 11.4 13.7 -2.3
Kansas 13 8-5 61.5% 7-5 8-4-1 17.3 11.6 +5.7
Tennessee 13 8-5 61.5% 8-5 9-4 18.7 9.9 +8.8
Oklahoma 13 8-5 61.5% 6-5 10-1-2 24.8 12.9 +11.9
Rice 13 8-5 61.5% 6-6 7-6 16.2 13.4 +2.8
Auburn 13 8-5 61.5% 5-8 5-6-2 14.2 10.1 +4.2
South Florida 13 8-5 61.5% 7-5 5-6-2 17.8 16.8 +1.1
Georgia Southern 13 8-5 61.5% 6-6-1 7-5-1 17.0 14.5 +2.5
Texas A&M 13 8-5 61.5% 7-5 10-3 18.3 10.7 +7.6
Arizona 13 8-5 61.5% 3-9 7-5-1 16.1 10.8 +5.3
Michigan 15 9-6 60% 4-8-2 15-0 18.9 5.7 +13.3
Rutgers 13 7-5 58.3% 5-6 7-6 11.6 9.7 +1.9
UAB 12 7-5 58.3% 8-3-1 5-6-1 18.2 17.1 +1.1
Arizona State 12 7-5 58.3% 6-6 6-6 9.8 17.2 -7.4
Virginia 12 7-5 58.3% 6-6 3-7-2 10.3 14.8 -4.6
Indiana 12 7-5 58.3% 7-5 5-7 11.4 15.2 -3.8
Houston 12 7-5 58.3% 5-7 5-7 13.1 16.8 -3.8
Southern Miss 12 7-5 58.3% 7-4 4-7-1 11.6 16.9 -5.3
BYU 12 7-5 58.3% 9-2 6-5-1 14.1 15.9 -1.8
Sam Houston 12 7-5 58.3% 6-4 3-8-1 9.6 14.2 -4.6
Louisville 14 8-6 57.1% 4-8 8-5-1 15.8 9.6 +6.1
Tulane 14 8-6 57.1% 5-8 9-4-1 16.1 9.2 +6.9
New Mexico 12 6-5-1 54.5% 8-2-2 4-8 14.5 19.8 -5.3
SMU 14 7-6-1 53.8% 4-9 12-2 23.4 8.8 +14.6
Notre Dame 13 7-6 53.8% 4-7 10-2-1 17.5 6.7 +10.8
UCF 13 7-6 53.8% 4-7 6-4-3 17.6 11.5 +6.1
Ole Miss 13 7-6 53.8% 5-7 10-2-1 16.7 11.1 +5.6
Iowa State 13 7-6 53.8% 8-4 6-6-1 13.4 12.5 +0.8
Maryland 13 7-6 53.8% 9-3 6-4-3 16.6 11.8 +4.8
California 13 7-6 53.8% 7-4 7-6 16.9 18.6 -1.7
Louisiana 13 7-6 53.8% 5-8 6-4-3 15.8 12.0 +3.8
Coastal Carolina 13 7-6 53.8% 5-6-1 7-6 14.4 11.2 +3.2
Clemson 13 7-6 53.8% 6-5 10-2-1 15.8 8.3 +7.5
Washington 15 8-7 53.3% 7-7 10-3-2 22.9 13.5 +9.3
Texas 14 7-7 50% 6-7 12-1-1 19.3 8.9 +10.4
Toledo 14 7-7 50% 5-6-1 8-5-1 16.8 9.4 +7.4
James Madison 13 6-6-1 50% 5-8 11-2 16.4 8.1 +8.3
UTSA 13 6-6-1 50% 8-4 8-4-1 17.7 16.1 +1.6
Virginia Tech 13 6-6-1 50% 10-2 7-5-1 15.8 12.2 +3.6
Duke 13 6-6-1 50% 5-7 6-4-3 13.1 9.1 +4.0
San Diego State 12 6-6 50% 6-5 5-5-2 10.0 12.9 -2.9
Wake Forest 12 6-6 50% 5-6 2-8-2 9.1 15.2 -6.1
Florida 12 6-6 50% 5-5 6-5-1 15.0 13.5 +1.5
Tulsa 12 6-6 50% 7-4 4-7-1 13.6 19.7 -6.1
Michigan State 12 5-5-2 50% 5-5-1 4-7-1 7.4 15.2 -7.8
Stanford 12 6-6 50% 5-7 2-10 8.3 20.9 -12.7
Colorado 12 6-6 50% 6-5 4-8 12.6 17.8 -5.3
Pittsburgh 12 6-6 50% 5-6-1 3-7-2 10.5 12.8 -2.3
Middle Tennessee 12 6-6 50% 6-5 7-4-1 15.1 13.4 +1.7
New Mexico State 15 7-8 46.7% 5-8-1 7-4-4 14.5 11.5 +2.9
Utah 13 6-7 46.2% 7-5 7-5-1 12.1 10.8 +1.2
Arkansas State 13 6-7 46.2% 5-6 6-7 12.5 17.8 -5.4
Kentucky 13 6-7 46.2% 8-4 6-6-1 14.2 12.8 +1.5
Boston College 13 6-7 46.2% 6-6 5-8 10.7 16.2 -5.5
Air Force 13 6-7 46.2% 9-3-1 7-5-1 15.2 11.2 +4.1
Ohio State 13 6-7 46.2% 3-8-1 10-2-1 15.5 5.0 +10.5
Memphis 13 6-7 46.2% 9-3-1 7-4-2 20.6 13.6 +7.0
South Alabama 13 6-7 46.2% 5-6 7-5-1 16.9 11.0 +5.9
Wyoming 13 6-7 46.2% 5-5-1 7-6 15.0 10.8 +4.2
Texas Tech 13 6-7 46.2% 5-6 7-5-1 15.8 13.4 +2.4
Oregon State 13 6-7 46.2% 4-7 8-4-1 16.2 10.8 +5.4
LSU 13 6-7 46.2% 7-4 7-5-1 22.8 14.9 +7.9
Iowa 14 5-6-1 45.5% 3-7-1 9-4-1 7.6 6.1 +1.5
Utah State 13 5-6-2 45.5% 8-5 3-7-3 15.2 19.7 -4.5
Nebraska 12 5-6 45.5% 3-6 5-5-2 7.8 8.7 -0.9
Charlotte 12 5-6-1 45.5% 4-8 4-7-1 7.8 12.6 -4.8
Nevada 12 5-6-1 45.5% 4-7 3-8-1 8.8 15.5 -6.7
Colorado State 12 5-6-1 45.5% 6-6 5-5-2 12.5 12.7 -0.2
App State 14 6-8 42.9% 5-9 7-5-2 15.0 12.6 +2.4
Georgia 14 6-8 42.9% 8-5 10-2-2 21.8 9.0 +12.8
Troy 14 6-8 42.9% 3-10 9-5 13.4 9.0 +4.4
Alabama 14 6-8 42.9% 7-5 7-5-2 17.4 10.4 +7.0
UTEP 12 5-7 41.7% 5-7 2-7-3 10.6 14.8 -4.2
Florida International 12 5-7 41.7% 8-2 3-7-2 11.5 19.5 -8.0
Kent State 12 5-7 41.7% 4-6 3-9 8.5 16.8 -8.3
Central Michigan 12 5-7 41.7% 5-5 3-8-1 10.6 13.6 -3.0
Cincinnati 12 5-7 41.7% 7-5 3-9 13.1 14.1 -1.0
Florida Atlantic 12 5-7 41.7% 6-5 5-7 12.1 15.1 -3.0
Ohio 13 5-8 38.5% 2-9 7-5-1 11.5 5.7 +5.8
USC 13 5-8 38.5% 8-3 6-6-1 22.4 16.8 +5.5
Hawai'i 13 5-8 38.5% 7-6 3-9-1 9.4 18.8 -9.4
Northern Illinois 13 5-8 38.5% 3-9 4-7-2 10.3 10.6 -0.3
Western Kentucky 13 5-8 38.5% 6-5 7-5-1 17.9 14.5 +3.5
Penn State 13 5-8 38.5% 4-7-1 9-3-1 15.8 7.8 +8.0
Ball State 12 4-7-1 36.4% 4-6-1 3-7-2 7.7 14.1 -6.4
Purdue 12 4-7-1 36.4% 3-7 3-8-1 9.8 16.1 -6.3
North Texas 12 4-7-1 36.4% 8-2 4-7-1 16.8 21.1 -4.3
Minnesota 13 4-8-1 33.3% 6-5 5-7-1 11.1 13.1 -2.0
Louisiana Tech 12 4-8 33.3% 4-5 3-8-1 11.7 20.4 -8.8
Arkansas 12 4-8 33.3% 6-5 5-6-1 13.3 14.9 -1.7
Buffalo 12 4-8 33.3% 5-6 4-8 9.1 14.4 -5.3
Mississippi State 12 4-8 33.3% 6-6 5-7 10.3 15.7 -5.3
UL Monroe 12 4-8 33.3% 4-6 1-10-1 9.1 18.5 -9.4
South Carolina 12 4-8 33.3% 6-6 6-6 13.9 14.8 -0.9
Fresno State 13 4-9 30.8% 4-7 7-5-1 15.1 12.2 +2.9
Wisconsin 13 4-9 30.8% 6-6 4-7-2 10.2 12.2 -1.9
Syracuse 13 4-9 30.8% 6-5-1 4-9 11.5 15.4 -3.8
North Carolina 13 4-9 30.8% 7-5 8-4-1 17.7 14.2 +3.5
UCLA 13 4-9 30.8% 4-7 6-7 13.0 10.2 +2.8
Navy 12 3-7-1 30% 3-6 4-6-2 7.7 13.9 -6.3
Oklahoma State 14 4-10 28.6% 7-6 5-9 13.4 17.1 -3.8
Florida State 14 4-10 28.6% 7-5 8-5-1 15.9 12.2 +3.7
Marshall 13 3-8-2 27.3% 7-5 3-9-1 12.0 16.3 -4.3
Massachusetts 12 3-9 25% 5-6 3-8-1 9.1 20.9 -11.8
Temple 12 3-9 25% 4-6 3-9 10.8 18.3 -7.5
Baylor 12 3-9 25% 5-5 3-9 9.8 18.8 -8.9
Illinois 12 3-9 25% 8-2 3-8-1 12.8 16.2 -3.4
TCU 12 2-9-1 18.2% 4-6 6-6 14.8 16.7 -1.9
Vanderbilt 12 1-11 8.3% 6-5 2-10 9.3 19.5 -10.2
Delaware 1 0-1 0% 1-0 0-1 7.0 35.0 -28.0

How it works

Halftime scores come from ESPN quarter scores (Q1 + Q2) for every game since 2015.

1st-half lines. ESPN publishes no college 1st-half lines. Real ones come from The Odds API’s US books (DraftKings first) for games kicking off within about five days (the biggest matchups first, a capped number a day), pulled once, so a line shows the time it was fetched; every other game, and every past college game, is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.59, total × 0.52, rounded to the half point: the share of the margin and points college teams score before halftime). A real line shows its book; an estimated one is marked “est.”

Projection. The full-game model's margin and total, scaled the same way. The blend was chosen by the lowest walk-forward error.

Spread edge and Total edge. The model’s 1st-half line (total) minus the market’s, in points. A lean starts when the projection beats the 1H line by 2–6 pts (ATS) or 3+ pts (O/U). Shown for context: neither has a proven edge.

Picks and prices. For a game with a posted 1st-half line, tap Pick on its tile to save a 1H spread or total pick (graded on the halftime score; they show in My picks). The game card’s Market tab lists every book’s 1st-half price.

NCAAF first-half betting FAQ

First-half lines, 1H ATS and halftime totals explained

What is a first-half spread in the NCAAF?

A first-half (1H) spread is a point spread graded on the score at halftime only. A team covers the 1st-half spread when its 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line is positive; the 2nd half and overtime don't count.

How are NCAAF first-half lines set here?

ESPN publishes no college 1st-half lines. Real ones come from The Odds API’s US books (DraftKings first) for games kicking off within about five days (the biggest matchups first, a capped number a day), pulled once, so a line shows the time it was fetched; every other game, and every past college game, is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.59, total × 0.52, rounded to the half point: the share of the margin and points college teams score before halftime).

How is the 1st-half projection made?

The full-game power-rating model's margin and total are scaled to the first half. Every past week is predicted only from games played before it.

Do the 1st-half leans beat the market?

Not so far. Over 2016–26, 1st-half ATS leans went 1117-1157 (49.1%) and over/under leans 313-299 (51.1%), below or near the 52.4% needed to break even at -110 odds, so they are shown as context only.

How often does the model pick the team leading at halftime?

69.7% of 7,953 NCAAF games in the 2016–26 walk-forward backtest.