Charlotte @ SMU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at SMU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff89°F7 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Charlotte

1-3 · Power #124

final

Final

SMU

2-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -22.5

✓ CLT W

Total

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 14–36 SMU

✓ SMU (94%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -22.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSMU -22.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSMU -22.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 22.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SMU won 34–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 53, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.3 against an average line of 23; 52.3 points a game (usually 55.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-24	34–7	W	U51
Very close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Very close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Very close	BYU vs USF 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-23.5	35–27	L	O54.5
Very close	UL vs ULM 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	21–16	L	U55.25
Very close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Very close	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-24	42–7	W	U54
Very close	UL vs TXST 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21	45–0	W	U58
Very close	USC vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21.5	41–34	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT LWLW	2-2	50%	2-0	2-1
SMU WLWL	2-2	50%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
SMU –UOU	1-2	33%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 49–57 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLTlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
SMUlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−0.6 →−10.9▼ 10.3#119

SMU+10.7 →+5.6▼ 5.1#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CLT

Longer bar = better

SMU

#122

Offense

SMU better ▶

#56

#90

Defense

SMU better ▶

#47

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

◀ CLT better

−1.0 #123

60 plays #127

Pace

SMU faster ▶

74 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	CLT off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #122	19.0 #40	SMU
Yards / play	5.15 #106	4.71 #27	SMU
PPA / play	−0.05 #131	+0.07 #65	SMU
Success rate	36% #128	39% #57	SMU

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #43	26.0 #81	SMU
Yards / play	6.10 #50	6.49 #126	SMU
PPA / play	+0.15 #58	+0.11 #84	SMU
Success rate	42% #74	41% #70	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CLT scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	3.5 #107	8.5 #74	12.0 #94	3.8 #113	3.3 #125	7.0 #124
SMU allowed	3.5 #47	3.5 #19	7.0 #22	5.0 #60	7.0 #83	12.0 #66

SMU scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	8.5 #32	13.0 #16	21.5 #16	5.3 #86	7.0 #67	12.3 #82
CLT allowed	4.3 #58	7.8 #78	12.0 #69	6.3 #88	7.8 #96	14.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.