Navy @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Charlotte · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Navy

2-3 · Power #108

▲ winner

Final

Charlotte

1-4 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

NAVY -3.5

✓ NAVY W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 14 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 23–20 CLT

✓ NAVY (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseNAVY -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNAVY -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 42% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseNAVY -3.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 3.5-point road favorite at CLT, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 14–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 14 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 3.1; 49.4 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	ECU @ NAVY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	38–35	L	O46.5
Close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Close	TOL @ SDSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3	14–17	L	U44.5
Close	UL @ TXST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-5	41–13	W	O44
Close	RUTG @ NU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	7–21	L	U45
Close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	20–14	W	U43
Close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	21–38	L	O40
Close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	41–11	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY LLWLL	1-4	20%	1-0	0-3
CLT LWLWW	3-2	60%	0-2	3-1

Venue/role: NAVY away, as favorite; CLT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY –UOO–	2-1	67%	2-3
CLT UOOUU	2-3	40%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 58% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVYlast 5	2-3 40%	1-4 20%	2-1 67%
CLTlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NAVY 2–0 CLT NAVY leads · 2 games since 2023 · NAVY has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−15.5 →−7.8▲ 7.7#102

CLT−0.6 →−10.9▼ 10.3#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NAVY

Longer bar = better

CLT

#87

Offense

◀ NAVY better

#127

#97

Defense

Even

#92

+1.2 #6

Turnovers

◀ NAVY better

−0.2 #87

63 plays #106

Pace

Even

62 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Even matchup

	NAVY off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #112	27.6 #86	CLT
Yards / play	5.56 #80	6.38 #120	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.10 #82	+0.14 #91	Even
Success rate	42% #75	42% #71	Even

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	CLT off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #126	27.6 #85	NAVY
Yards / play	4.99 #120	5.90 #92	NAVY
PPA / play	−0.05 #129	+0.14 #88	NAVY
Success rate	36% #131	47% #124	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.0 #46	5.8 #113	12.8 #90	3.4 #121	5.4 #95	8.8 #120
CLT allowed	6.2 #94	6.8 #60	13.0 #76	7.0 #92	7.6 #93	14.6 #99

CLT scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	2.8 #126	7.4 #86	10.2 #115	4.2 #111	4.0 #117	8.2 #121
NAVY allowed	6.2 #94	8.8 #96	15.0 #92	4.2 #39	8.4 #103	12.6 #77

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.