Liberty @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Tue, Oct 10, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Liberty

5-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville State

5-1 · Power #69

final

Closing spread

LIB -7

✓ LIB W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 32–25 JXST

✓ LIB (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -7

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -7

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 7-point road favorite at JXST, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 59.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 6.8; 68.6 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	WAKE @ SYR 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	40–37	L	O58.5
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	24–17	P	U59.5
Very close	UCF @ FAU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-7.5	40–14	W	U61.5
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Very close	UTSA @ UNT 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.5	23–45	L	O59.5
Very close	MEM @ ARST 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	55–50	L	O64.5
Very close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Very close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LWWWL	3-2	60%	2-0	3-2
JXST WLWPW	4-1-1	80%	3-0	2-1

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; JXST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB –UOU–	1-2	33%	5-0
JXST UUUOO	2-4	33%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 43% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIBlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	1-2 33%
JXSTlast 6	5-1 83%	4-1-1 80%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.0 →+2.5▼ 0.5#49

JXST−5.1 →−4.7▲ 0.4#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

LIB

Longer bar = better

JXST

#25

Offense

◀ LIB better

#84

#26

Defense

Even

#16

+1.4 #4

Turnovers

Even

+1.7 #3

68 plays #62

Pace

JXST faster ▶

72 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #23	17.5 #21	Even
Yards / play	7.25 #9	4.78 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #32	−0.06 #13	Even
Success rate	46% #35	32% #8	JXST

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	JXST off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #64	18.0 #24	LIB
Yards / play	5.16 #105	4.99 #30	LIB
PPA / play	+0.08 #85	−0.05 #17	LIB
Success rate	41% #82	37% #32	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	9.0 #24	14.2 #8	23.2 #7	9.6 #22	3.4 #124	13.0 #79
JXST allowed	4.5 #57	6.2 #46	10.7 #49	2.2 #11	4.7 #41	6.8 #13

JXST scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.2 #63	5.2 #120	11.3 #109	9.8 #17	8.2 #43	18.0 #19
LIB allowed	4.6 #63	7.6 #75	12.2 #68	4.6 #47	1.2 #1	5.8 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.