Stanford @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Fri, Oct 13, 2023, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff42°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Stanford

1-4 · Power #106

▲ winner

Final

Colorado

4-2 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

COLO -13.5

✓ STAN W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 89 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 24–38 COLO

✗ COLO (85%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseCOLO -13.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCOLO -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseCOLO -13.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 13.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: STAN won 46–43 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 89 points went over 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 13.2; 64.3 points a game (usually 55.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Very close	SMU vs NAVY 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.25	51–37	W	O58.5
Very close	UCF vs TULN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	14–10	L	U57
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14	34–17	W	U61.5
Very close	HOU vs USF 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-14.5	56–21	W	O58.5
Very close	CCU vs ODU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-11.25	21–49	L	O58.5
Close	TLSA vs USF 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-13.75	48–42	L	O57.5
Close	GAST vs ULM 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	28–31	L	U59.5
Close	CCU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-12	38–26	P	O59.75
Close	WKU vs RICE 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	45–10	W	U61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WLLWL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2
COLO WLLWP	3-2-1	60%	2-1	1-1-1

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; COLO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OUUUU	1-4	20%	1-4
COLO UOUOU	2-3	40%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 71 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STANlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%
COLOlast 6	4-2 67%	3-2-1 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN+2.6 →−9.5▼ 12.1#112

COLO+3.1 →+2.1▼ 1.0#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

STAN

Longer bar = better

COLO

#98

Offense

COLO better ▶

#52

#130

Defense

Even

#118

−0.6 #110

Turnovers

COLO better ▶

+1.2 #8

68 plays #63

Pace

COLO faster ▶

75 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #120	34.2 #123	Even
Yards / play	5.09 #112	6.26 #116	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #76	+0.19 #111	STAN
Success rate	41% #85	46% #122	STAN

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: COLO offense

	COLO off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #41	34.6 #124	COLO
Yards / play	5.54 #81	6.75 #130	COLO
PPA / play	+0.22 #35	+0.34 #134	COLO
Success rate	44% #52	51% #133	COLO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	4.0 #104	6.8 #104	10.8 #114	3.2 #122	5.2 #98	8.4 #120
COLO allowed	8.0 #116	12.2 #126	20.2 #129	7.0 #92	5.8 #58	12.8 #79

COLO scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	4.7 #96	7.3 #87	12.0 #99	6.2 #75	12.3 #3	18.5 #14
STAN allowed	4.8 #65	14.6 #132	19.4 #127	6.2 #80	9.0 #113	15.2 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.