California @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

California

3-3 · Power #57

final

Final

Utah

4-1 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -9.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 17–26 UTAH

✓ UTAH (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTAH -9.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTAH -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTAH -9.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 9.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 34–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 43.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 8.5; 45.9 points a game (usually 55.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-10.5	40–20	W	O45
Close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Close	WASH vs CAL 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Close	CLEM vs FSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Close	BAY vs KSU 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	32–31	L	O44.5
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-7	22–26	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL WLLLL	2-4	33%	1-1	2-2
UTAH WPLWL	2-2-1	50%	2-1	2-1-1

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL UUOU–	1-3	25%	3-3
UTAH –UUUU	0-4	0%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CALlast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	1-3 25%
UTAHlast 5	4-1 80%	2-2-1 50%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+15.6 →+2.7▼ 12.9#46

UTAH+1.7 →+5.3▲ 3.6#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CAL

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#65

Offense

◀ CAL better

#124

#104

Defense

UTAH better ▶

+0.7 #28

Turnovers

UTAH better ▶

+1.0 #12

77 plays #6

Pace

◀ CAL faster

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	CAL off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #46	11.8 #5	UTAH
Yards / play	5.60 #76	4.82 #24	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.11 #73	−0.11 #5	UTAH
Success rate	43% #63	30% #2	UTAH

When UTAH has the ball

Even matchup

	UTAH off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #119	30.7 #104	Even
Yards / play	4.55 #127	6.00 #100	CAL
PPA / play	−0.03 #125	+0.15 #94	CAL
Success rate	37% #125	46% #117	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	5.0 #92	11.0 #26	16.0 #58	9.7 #16	6.8 #73	16.5 #32
UTAH allowed	2.0 #9	3.4 #7	5.4 #5	2.0 #10	4.4 #27	6.4 #10

UTAH scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	4.2 #102	6.0 #111	10.2 #115	4.8 #98	4.2 #113	9.0 #120
CAL allowed	9.2 #121	10.5 #114	19.7 #128	4.5 #46	6.5 #71	11.0 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.