Massachusetts @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Penn State

Weather at kickoff47°F8 mphgusts 19Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Massachusetts

1-6 · Power #127

final

Final

Penn State

5-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -41.5

✓ PSU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 7–48 PSU

✓ PSU (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -41.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

ClosePSU -41.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54.5

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

ClosePSU -41.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like PSU as a 41.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 63–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 9 similar games. 63 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 9.

Favorite won

9 of 9100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 41%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 39 against an average line of 40.4; 55.4 points a game (usually 56.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA vs UAB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-41	49–21	L	O56
Close	UGA vs BALL 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-42	45–3	P	U52.5
Loose	FLA vs VAN 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-39	42–0	W	U60
Loose	NCST vs CONN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-38.5	41–10	L	O47.75
Loose	UGA vs MIZ 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-40	43–6	L	U59
Loose	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & situation	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5
Loose	MICH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar total & spread	-40.75	31–6	L	U53.5
Loose	OSU vs IU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form & spread	-40	56–14	W	O62
Loose	ALA vs USM 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & situation	-45	63–14	W	O57.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LWLLW	3-4	43%	2-1	3-2
PSU WWWWW	5-0	100%	3-0	5-0

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS OUOO–	5-1	83%	1-6
PSU –OUUO	2-2	50%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 76 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASSlast 7	1-6 14%	3-4 43%	5-1 83%
PSUlast 5	5-0 100%	5-0 100%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−11.8 →−15.4▼ 3.6#131

PSU+6.6 →+17.5▲ 10.9#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MASS

Longer bar = better

PSU

#63

Offense

PSU better ▶

#39

#133

Defense

PSU better ▶

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+2.2 #1

63 plays #105

Pace

PSU faster ▶

81 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	MASS off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #88	9.6 #2	PSU
Yards / play	6.29 #41	3.79 #2	PSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #62	−0.13 #4	PSU
Success rate	43% #61	32% #5	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	40.6 #11	39.4 #133	PSU
Yards / play	5.34 #97	7.48 #134	PSU
PPA / play	+0.26 #28	+0.33 #133	PSU
Success rate	49% #20	49% #131	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	3.0 #119	7.3 #92	10.3 #115	5.7 #83	9.7 #20	15.4 #43
PSU allowed	2.0 #9	4.2 #16	6.2 #8	0.0 #1	3.4 #14	3.4 #2

PSU scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.6 #52	10.4 #31	17.0 #43	13.2 #2	10.4 #13	23.6 #1
MASS allowed	10.7 #128	11.4 #122	22.1 #133	8.4 #110	8.0 #98	16.4 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.