Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Georgia
Closing spread
UGA -42
Push
Total
52.5
▼ Under · 48 pts
Model before kickoff
BALL 8–45 UGA
✓ UGA (100%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUGA -42
Total52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseUGA -42
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close52.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUGA -42
Total52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
UGA as a 42-point home favorite against BALL. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Ball State has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 63% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% | 1-0 100% | |
| 1-0 100% | 0-1 0% | 0-1 0% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams
Longer bar = better
#114
Offense
UGA better ▶#28
#104
Defense
UGA better ▶#24
−1.0 #99
Turnovers
UGA better ▶+1.0 #44
71 plays #40
Pace
Even70 plays #50
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| BALL off | UGA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 14.0 #113 | 7.0 #23 | UGA |
| Yards / play | 4.15 #120 | 4.13 #34 | UGA |
| PPA / play | −0.07 #112 | −0.18 #27 | UGA |
| Success rate | 35% #110 | 21% #11 | UGA |
| UGA off | BALL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 48.0 #19 | 44.0 #120 | UGA |
| Yards / play | 7.99 #16 | 6.94 #116 | UGA |
| PPA / play | +0.39 #28 | +0.20 #102 | UGA |
| Success rate | 46% #50 | 40% #79 | UGA |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
78° · 4 mph
gusts 15 mph · 0.004 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
BALL7d
UGA7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 141 plays
slowavg 135fast
Quarterback
BALL backup QB started
Not the usual starter
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

