Eastern Michigan @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Minnesota

Weather at kickoff70°F4 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

1-0 · Power #126

final

Final

Minnesota

1-0 · Power #79

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -19.5

✓ EMU W

Total

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 14–31 MINN

✓ MINN (89%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -19.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMINN -19.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMINN -19.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 19.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 25–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 18.5; 45.2 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-19.5	44–14	W	O46
Close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Loose	JMU vs CCU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-15.5	47–7	W	O53
Loose	MRSH vs FAU 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & total	-19	20–9	L	U51
Loose	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & rest	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Loose	APP vs USA 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-21.5	31–7	W	U51.75
Loose	ASU vs WSU 2021 · Week 9 · loose	-16.5	21–34	L	O54.5
Loose	UAB vs UTSA 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-21.5	21–13	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU L	0-1	0%	—	—
MINN L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; MINN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU O	1-0	100%	1-0
MINN –	0-0	—	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 5. 65% of games with totals 44–52 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMUlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%
MINNlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-0 —

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

EMU

Longer bar = better

MINN

#72

Offense

◀ EMU better

#120

#75

Defense

MINN better ▶

#59

−1.0 #93

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+3.0 #4

58 plays #118

Pace

MINN faster ▶

69 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #63	10.0 #29	MINN
Yards / play	4.91 #100	5.27 #76	MINN
PPA / play	+0.16 #69	−0.22 #18	MINN
Success rate	45% #56	48% #111	EMU

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	MINN off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #120	23.0 #75	EMU
Yards / play	3.64 #128	5.31 #80	EMU
PPA / play	−0.04 #112	+0.09 #83	EMU
Success rate	33% #119	38% #63	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.