Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Massachusetts

Weather at kickoff77°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

0-1 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

1-1 · Power #127

final

Closing spread

M-OH -7

✓ M-OH W

Total

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 28–23 MASS

✓ M-OH (65%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -7

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseM-OH -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -7

Total45

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like M-OH as a 7-point road favorite at MASS, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 41–28; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 69 points went over 45, as in 3 of 4.

Favorite won

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 6.8; 52 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MEM @ NAVY 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-4.5	37–13	W	O47.25
Loose	ARMY @ ULM 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-8.5	13–17	L	U47.25
Loose	TLSA @ WYO 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & total	-6.5	37–40	L	O46
Loose	HOU @ RICE 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-7.5	44–7	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH L	0-1	0%	0-1	—
MASS WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; MASS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH –	0-0	—	0-1
MASS OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OHlast 1	0-1 0%	0-1 0%	0-0 —
MASSlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

M-OH

Longer bar = better

MASS

#127

Offense

MASS better ▶

#63

#121

Defense

Even

#118

+1.0 #29

Turnovers

◀ M-OH better

+0.5 #54

49 plays #132

Pace

Even

53 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	3.0 #131	44.5 #121	Even
Yards / play	4.39 #114	7.18 #122	Even
PPA / play	−0.25 #130	+0.24 #105	MASS
Success rate	21% #132	53% #122	Even

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MASS offense

	MASS off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #74	38.0 #111	MASS
Yards / play	6.57 #42	8.08 #130	MASS
PPA / play	+0.20 #54	+0.44 #124	MASS
Success rate	40% #82	52% #120	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.