Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 11:00 AM EDTWeek 2 · at Wake Forest

Weather at kickoff74°F3 mphgusts 10Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Vanderbilt

2-0 · Power #111

final

Final

Wake Forest

1-0 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

WAKE -9.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 22–31 WAKE

✓ WAKE (72%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWAKE -9.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWAKE -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close55

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWAKE -9.5

Total55

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 9.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 36–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 55, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 8.3; 51.6 points a game (usually 55.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BOIS vs BYU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	28–31	L	O54.5
Close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5
Close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	17–26	L	U58
Close	MD vs MSU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	27–13	W	U58.5
Close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5
Close	NEB vs PUR 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-7.5	23–28	L	U54
Close	AUB vs MIZ 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	17–14	L	U51
Close	MSST vs ARK 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-8.5	40–17	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN LL	0-2	0%	—	—
WAKE L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; WAKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OO	2-0	100%	2-0
WAKE O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 17 earlier overs in games with totals 51–59, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VANlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	2-0 100%
WAKElast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

VAN

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#61

Offense

Even

#55

#73

Defense

WAKE better ▶

#33

+1.0 #24

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #25

61 plays #107

Pace

WAKE faster ▶

65 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	VAN off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #37	17.0 #57	Even
Yards / play	6.26 #55	3.86 #28	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.09 #83	−0.14 #32	WAKE
Success rate	42% #68	24% #15	WAKE

When WAKE has the ball

Even matchup

	WAKE off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #50	20.5 #72	WAKE
Yards / play	6.57 #43	5.27 #77	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.13 #74	+0.07 #79	Even
Success rate	46% #52	37% #63	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.