James Madison @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2023)

Sat, Sep 9, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Virginia

Weather at kickoff86°F5 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

1-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Virginia

0-1 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

JMU -6

✓ UVA W

Total

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 31–23 UVA

✓ JMU (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -6

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseJMU -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseJMU -6

Total40

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like JMU as a 6-point road favorite at UVA, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 36–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 2 similar games. 71 points went over 40, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 25.5 against an average line of 7.4; 35.5 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	AFA @ NAVY 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & total	-6	23–3	W	U39.5
Loose	SDSU @ USU 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-8.75	38–7	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
UVA L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; UVA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU U	0-1	0%	1-0
UVA O	1-0	100%	0-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMUlast 1	1-0 100%	0-1 0%	0-1 0%
UVAlast 1	0-1 0%	0-1 0%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

JMU

Longer bar = better

UVA

#61

Offense

◀ JMU better

#130

#16

Defense

◀ JMU better

#117

0.0 #65

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+1.0 #31

65 plays #80

Pace

Even

64 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #45	49.0 #126	JMU
Yards / play	6.71 #41	5.87 #95	JMU
PPA / play	+0.06 #90	+0.32 #117	JMU
Success rate	43% #67	59% #130	JMU

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	UVA off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #118	3.0 #11	JMU
Yards / play	3.14 #133	3.65 #22	JMU
PPA / play	−0.37 #133	−0.23 #17	JMU
Success rate	16% #134	24% #14	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.