Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site
Closing spread
TENN -28
✓ TENN W
Total
58.5
▲ Over · 62 pts
Model before kickoff
UVA 16–38 TENN
✓ TENN (95%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseTENN -28
Total58.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseTENN -28
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close58.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseTENN -28
Total58.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
TENN as a 28-point neutral-site favorite against UVA. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Virginia have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 92 FBS teams
UVALonger bar = better
TENN#89
Offense
TENN better ▶#25
#80
Defense
TENN better ▶#11
+1.0 #26
Turnovers
◀ UVA better−1.0 #69
64 plays #60
Pace
TENN faster ▶85 plays #5
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When UVA has the ball| UVA off | TENN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 13.0 #82 | 13.0 #29 | TENN |
| Yards / play | 3.14 #90 | 3.14 #6 | TENN |
| PPA / play | −0.37 #91 | −0.37 #6 | TENN |
| Success rate | 16% #92 | 16% #2 | TENN |
When TENN has the ball| TENN off | UVA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 49.0 #13 | 49.0 #86 | TENN |
| Yards / play | 5.87 #45 | 5.87 #65 | TENN |
| PPA / play | +0.32 #30 | +0.32 #79 | TENN |
| Success rate | 59% #11 | 59% #88 | TENN |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
81° · 4 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UVA1st game
TENN1st game
Even
Tempo
Fast 149 plays
slowavg 134fast
Schedules, links & other games
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