Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Boston College
Weather at kickoff77°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›
0-0 · Power #94
27
▲ winner
Final
@
0-0 · Power #75
24
final
Closing spread
BC -8
✓ NIU W
Total
50
▲ Over · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
NIU 23–30 BC
✗ BC (69%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseBC -8
Total50
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseBC -8
Total50
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BC as an 8-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 50, as in 0 of 10.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 70%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
0 of 100%
Below normal · usually 48%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 7.4; 38 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
NU vs M-OH
2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread
-7.514–17 L U50
Very close
AUB vs MIZ
2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total
-7.517–14 L U51
Very close
BC vs RUTG
2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation
-921–22 L U47
Very close
JMU vs MRSH
2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread
-9.512–26 L U48.5
Very close
SYR vs BC
2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings
-6.521–6 W U51.5
Very close
HOU vs TULN
2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & total
-5.524–27 L U52
Very close
KSU vs MIZ
2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread
-740–12 W U52.5
Very close
CAL vs WSU
2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total
-7.56–21 L U52.5
Very close
ARMY vs M-OH
2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total
-7.523–10 W U48.75
Very close
SJSU vs UNLV
2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread
-6.540–7 W U51.5
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Northern Illinois have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
BC +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 8 mph
gusts 19 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NIU1st game
BC1st game
Even

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week