Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Boston College
Closing spread
BC -8
✓ NIU W
Total
50
▲ Over · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
NIU 23–30 BC
✗ BC (69%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseBC -8
Total50
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseBC -8
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close50
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseBC -8
Total50
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
BC as an 8-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 0 went over the total.
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This game: NIU won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 50, as in 0 of 10.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 70%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
0 of 100%
Below normal · usually 48%
Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 7.4; 38 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close | 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread |
-7.5 | 14–17 | L | U50 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total |
-7.5 | 17–14 | L | U51 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-9 | 21–22 | L | U47 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread |
-9.5 | 12–26 | L | U48.5 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-6.5 | 21–6 | W | U51.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-5.5 | 24–27 | L | U52 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-7 | 40–12 | W | U52.5 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total |
-7.5 | 6–21 | L | U52.5 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total |
-7.5 | 23–10 | W | U48.75 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread |
-6.5 | 40–7 | W | U51.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Northern Illinois have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 8 mph
gusts 19 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NIU1st game
BC1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

