Fri, Sep 1, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site · Conference game
Closing spread
LOU -9.5
✓ GT W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
LOU 31–23 GT
✓ LOU (71%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseLOU -9.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseLOU -9.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseLOU -9.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
LOU as a 9.5-point neutral-site favorite against GT, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: LOU won 39–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 73%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 7.8; 59.9 points a game (usually 55.3).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  KSU vs  LSU2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread |
-9.5 | 42–20 | W | O47 |
| Close |  APP vs  ECU2021 · Week 1 · close · similar spread |
-9 | 33–19 | W | U56 |
| Close |  SJSU vs  BALL2020 · Postseason · close · similar spread |
-9 | 13–34 | L | U65.5 |
| Close |  WMU vs  NEV2021 · Postseason · close |
-6.5 | 52–24 | W | O57 |
| Close |  ARMY vs  MIZ2021 · Postseason · close |
-7 | 24–22 | L | U54 |
| Close |  ORST vs  FLA2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread |
-7.5 | 30–3 | W | U51.75 |
| Close | ECU vs  CCU2022 · Postseason · close |
-7 | 53–29 | W | O67 |
| Close |  BSU vs SJSU2020 · Week 16 · close |
-6.5 | 20–34 | L | U58.5 |
| Close | ECU vs  USF2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread |
-9.5 | 48–28 | W | O55.5 |
| Close | CCU vs  LIB2020 · Postseason · close |
-6.5 | 34–37 | L | O60.25 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Louisville have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
LOU1st game
GT1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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