Sat, Aug 26, 2023, 5:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game
Weather at kickoff97°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›
0-0 · Power #115
14
final
Final
@
0-0 · Power #69
17
▲ winner
Closing spread
UTEP -1.5
✓ JXST W
Total
54.5
▼ Under · 31 pts
Model before kickoff
UTEP 27–27 JXST
✗ UTEP (52%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUTEP -1.5
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUTEP -1.5
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTEP as a 1.5-point road favorite at JXST, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 17–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 58%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 2; 53.5 points a game (usually 54.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
WAKE @ NCST
2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total
-242–45 L O53
Very close
WMU @ TOL
2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total
-1.515–34 L U54.5
Very close
FRES @ WYO
2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread
-317–0 W U53.5
Very close
BC @ GT
2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total
-1.7541–30 W O55
Very close
NEV @ KSU
2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation
-1.517–38 L O51
Very close
NCST @ MSST
2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total
-1.510–24 L U55.5
Very close
AFA @ NEV
2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total
-1.7541–39 W O54.25
Very close
BSU @ CSU
2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total
-228–19 W U51.5
Very close
UL @ UAB
2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-2.524–20 W U50.5
Very close
STAN @ ORST
2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread
-2.527–24 W U55
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
UTEP have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
JXST +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
97° · 4 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UTEP1st game
JXST1st game
Even

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week