Sat, Aug 26, 2023, 5:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game
Closing spread
UTEP -1.5
✓ JXST W
Total
54.5
▼ Under · 31 pts
Model before kickoff
UTEP 27–27 JXST
✗ UTEP (52%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUTEP -1.5
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseUTEP -1.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close54.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseUTEP -1.5
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
UTEP as a 1.5-point road favorite at JXST, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: JXST won 17–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 58%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 2; 53.5 points a game (usually 54.9). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close | 2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2 | 42–45 | L | O53 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total |
-1.5 | 15–34 | L | U54.5 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3 | 17–0 | W | U53.5 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total |
-1.75 | 41–30 | W | O55 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-1.5 | 17–38 | L | O51 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total |
-1.5 | 10–24 | L | U55.5 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total |
-1.75 | 41–39 | W | O54.25 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2 | 28–19 | W | U51.5 |
| Very close | 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-2.5 | 24–20 | W | U50.5 |
| Very close | 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread |
-2.5 | 27–24 | W | U55 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
UTEP have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
97° · 4 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UTEP1st game
JXST1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

