Sat, Aug 26, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at New Mexico State
Closing spread
NMSU -7
✓ MASS W
Total
45.5
▲ Over · 71 pts
Model before kickoff
MASS 23–30 NMSU
✗ NMSU (69%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseNMSU -7
Total45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseNMSU -7
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close45.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseNMSU -7
Total45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
NMSU as a 7-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: MASS won 41–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 68%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 6.8; 44.2 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  AFA vs  WYO2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-5.5 | 24–14 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |  SDSU vs  ARIZ2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-6.25 | 20–38 | L | O46.5 |
| Very close |  TULN vs  NAVY2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread |
-5.5 | 24–27 | L | O45 |
| Very close |  BC vs  RUTG2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar total & situation |
-9 | 21–22 | L | U47 |
| Very close |  OKST vs  KSU2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total |
-6 | 31–20 | W | O47.5 |
| Very close |  ARMY vs  M-OH2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-7.5 | 23–10 | W | U48.75 |
| Very close |  CAL vs  COLO2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread |
-8.25 | 26–3 | W | U44 |
| Very close |  NU vs M-OH2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-7.5 | 14–17 | L | U50 |
| Very close | CAL vs  STAN2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-5 | 27–20 | W | O46 |
| Very close |  ILL vs NU2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total |
-7 | 47–14 | W | O44.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New Mexico State ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.
New Mexico State at altitude (+1.2 km)
Massachusetts climb about 3,806 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)
Small sample warning
Massachusetts have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
NMSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
92° · 9 mph
gusts 20 mph · at kickoff
Rest
MASS1st game
NMSU1st game
Even
Altitude
MASS +3,806 ft
thin air for the visitors
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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