Thu, Aug 31, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at UConn
Closing spread
NCSU -17
✓ CONN W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
NCSU 34–20 CONN
✓ NCSU (83%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseNCSU -17
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseNCSU -17
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseNCSU -17
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
NCSU as a 17-point road favorite at CONN, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: NCSU won 24–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 86%
Favorite covered
8 of 1080%
Above normal · usually 48%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 49%
Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 18.3 against an average line of 14.9; 60.3 points a game (usually 55.7).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  TCU @  COLO2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation |
-13.5 | 38–13 | W | U59.5 |
| Close |  WAKE @  VAN2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-13.5 | 45–25 | W | O65.25 |
| Close |  CCU @  BUFF2021 · Week 3 · close · similar situation |
-14 | 28–25 | L | U58 |
| Loose |  HOU @  NAVY2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread |
-15.5 | 37–21 | W | O56 |
| Loose |  WKU @  HAW2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-16.5 | 49–17 | W | U67.5 |
| Loose |  USU @  CSU2022 · Week 7 · loose |
-14 | 17–13 | L | U45.5 |
| Loose | BUFF @  NIU2020 · Week 10 · loose |
-14.5 | 49–30 | W | O53 |
| Loose |  BSU @  AFA2020 · Week 9 · loose |
-13.5 | 49–30 | W | O49 |
| Loose |  SMU @  TEM2020 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread |
-17.25 | 47–23 | W | O63.75 |
| Loose |  UTAH @  ASU2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-16.75 | 34–13 | W | U54 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
NC State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CONN +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
64° · 5 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NCSU1st game
CONN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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