Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Virginia Tech
Weather at kickoff73°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›
0-0 · Power #97
17
final
Final
@
0-0 · Power #41
36
▲ winner
Closing spread
VT -16
✓ VT W
Total
48
▲ Over · 53 pts
Model before kickoff
ODU 20–34 VT
✓ VT (83%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseVT -16
Total48
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseVT -16
Total48
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 16-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: VT won 36–17; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 48, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 83%
Favorite covered
8 of 1080%
Above normal · usually 47%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 48%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 26.6 against an average line of 15.1; 48 points a game (usually 55.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
AFA vs COLO
2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total
-17.541–10 W O50
Close
JMU vs CCU
2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread
-15.547–7 W O53
Close
MRSH vs FAU
2020 · Week 8 · close · similar total & team ratings
-1920–9 L U51
Close
ECU vs ODU
2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total
-1339–21 W O49.75
Close
MIZ vs VAN
2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread
-1417–14 L U49
Close
ASU vs COLO
2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation
-1435–13 W O45.5
Close
BSU vs USU
2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread
-1742–13 W O51.5
Close
NW vs MD
2020 · Week 8 · close
-1343–3 W U52.5
Close
RUTG vs TEM
2021 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread
-1461–14 W O52
Close
NEB vs BUFF
2021 · Week 2 · close · similar situation
-13.528–3 W U54.5
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Old Dominion have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 127 FBS teams
ODU
Longer bar = better
VT
#96
Offense
VT better ▶
#80
#77
Defense
VT better ▶
#57
−3.0 #125
Turnovers
VT better ▶
+3.0 #10
68 plays #59
Pace
VT faster ▶
73 plays #29
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When ODU has the ball
Advantage: VT defense
ODU offVT defEdge
Points / game 17.0 #102 17.0 #63 VT
Yards / play 4.34 #109 4.34 #42 VT
PPA / play −0.15 #116 −0.15 #29 VT
Success rate 44% #58 44% #95 ODU
When VT has the ball
Even matchup
VT offODU defEdge
Points / game 36.0 #52 36.0 #102 VT
Yards / play 5.04 #89 5.04 #66 ODU
PPA / play +0.07 #84 +0.07 #72 Even
Success rate 38% #94 38% #66 ODU

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
VT +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 5 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ODU1st game
VT1st game
Even
Tempo
Fast 141 plays
slowavg 134fast
Altitude
ODU +2,067 ft
moderate climb

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week