Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Virginia Tech
Closing spread
VT -16
✓ VT W
Total
48
▲ Over · 53 pts
Model before kickoff
ODU 20–34 VT
✓ VT (83%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseVT -16
Total48
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseVT -16
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close48
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseVT -16
Total48
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
VT as a 16-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: VT won 36–17; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 48, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 83%
Favorite covered
8 of 1080%
Above normal · usually 47%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 48%
Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 26.6 against an average line of 15.1; 48 points a game (usually 55.9). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close | 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total |
-17.5 | 41–10 | W | O50 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread |
-15.5 | 47–7 | W | O53 |
| Close | 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar total & team ratings |
-19 | 20–9 | L | U51 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total |
-13 | 39–21 | W | O49.75 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread |
-14 | 17–14 | L | U49 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation |
-14 | 35–13 | W | O45.5 |
| Close | 2020 · Week 8 · close · similar spread |
-17 | 42–13 | W | O51.5 |
| Close | 2020 · Week 8 · close |
-13 | 43–3 | W | U52.5 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread |
-14 | 61–14 | W | O52 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-13.5 | 28–3 | W | U54.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Old Dominion have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 127 FBS teams
Longer bar = better
#96
Offense
VT better ▶#80
#77
Defense
VT better ▶#57
−3.0 #125
Turnovers
VT better ▶+3.0 #10
68 plays #59
Pace
VT faster ▶73 plays #29
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| ODU off | VT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 17.0 #102 | 17.0 #63 | VT |
| Yards / play | 4.34 #109 | 4.34 #42 | VT |
| PPA / play | −0.15 #116 | −0.15 #29 | VT |
| Success rate | 44% #58 | 44% #95 | ODU |
| VT off | ODU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 36.0 #52 | 36.0 #102 | VT |
| Yards / play | 5.04 #89 | 5.04 #66 | ODU |
| PPA / play | +0.07 #84 | +0.07 #72 | Even |
| Success rate | 38% #94 | 38% #66 | ODU |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 5 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ODU1st game
VT1st game
Even
Tempo
Fast 141 plays
slowavg 134fast
Altitude
ODU +2,067 ft
moderate climb
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

