Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Baylor
Closing spread
BAY -26
✓ TXST W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
TXST 16–38 BAY
✗ BAY (94%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseBAY -26
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseBAY -26
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseBAY -26
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 4 games most like 
BAY as a 26-point home favorite against TXST, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 0 went over the total.
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This game: TXST won 42–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 4 similar games.
Favorite won
4 of 4100%
Normal range · usually 91%
Favorite covered
3 of 475%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
0 of 40%
Below normal · usually 57%
Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 23.4; 38 points a game (usually 56.9).
All 4 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  OKST vs  TLSA2020 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread |
-24 | 16–7 | L | U67 |
| Loose |  ARMY vs  ULM2020 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread |
-24 | 37–7 | W | U53.5 |
| Loose |  UNC vs  SYR2020 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread |
-24 | 31–6 | W | U66.5 |
| Loose |  MSU vs  WMU2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-21.75 | 35–13 | W | U54.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Texas State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
BAY +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
99° · 2 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
TXST1st game
BAY1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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