Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at TCU
Closing spread
TCU -20
✓ COLO W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
COLO 19–35 TCU
✗ TCU (88%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseTCU -20
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseTCU -20
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseTCU -20
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
TCU as a 20-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: COLO won 45–42 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 90%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.1 against an average line of 18.8; 52.5 points a game (usually 56).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  MRSH vs  FAU2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread |
-19 | 20–9 | L | U51 |
| Close |  AFA vs  COLO2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-17.5 | 41–10 | W | O50 |
| Close |  MSU vs  WMU2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread |
-21.75 | 35–13 | W | U54.5 |
| Close |  NCST vs  USF2021 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & situation |
-20 | 45–0 | W | U58 |
| Loose |  MIZ vs  LT2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread |
-20.5 | 52–24 | W | O62.5 |
| Loose |  PITT vs  SYR2020 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-21 | 21–10 | L | U47 |
| Loose |  WAKE vs  LIB2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation |
-17.5 | 37–36 | L | O64 |
| Loose |  BSU vs  USU2020 · Week 8 · loose |
-17 | 42–13 | W | O51.5 |
| Loose |  ARIZ vs COLO2022 · Week 5 · loose |
-17.75 | 43–20 | W | O58 |
| Loose |  JMU vs  CCU2022 · Week 13 · loose |
-15.5 | 47–7 | W | O53 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Colorado have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
TCU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
89° · 4 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
COLO1st game
TCU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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