Fri, Sep 1, 2023, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Hawai'i
Closing spread
STAN -9.5
✓ STAN W
Total
58.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
STAN 29–22 HAW
✓ STAN (68%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseSTAN -9.5
Total58.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
CloseSTAN -9.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close58.5
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseSTAN -9.5
Total58.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
STAN as a 9.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: STAN won 37–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 73%
Favorite covered
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 50%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.7 against an average line of 8.1; 55.7 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  PUR @  ILL2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total |
-9.5 | 31–24 | L | U55.5 |
| Close |  WMU @  BUFF2021 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest |
-7 | 24–17 | P | U59.5 |
| Close |  COLO @  ARIZ2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total |
-9.5 | 24–13 | W | U57 |
| Close |  SJSU @  HAW2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread |
-8 | 17–13 | L | U62.5 |
| Close |  TOL @ BUFF2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total |
-7 | 27–34 | L | O56 |
| Close |  BYU @  LIB2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest |
-7 | 14–41 | L | U58 |
| Close |  FRES @  UNLV2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread |
-8.5 | 37–30 | L | O62 |
| Close |  VAN @ HAW2022 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & situation |
-9.25 | 63–10 | W | O54.5 |
| Close | BYU @ STAN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest |
-6.5 | 35–26 | W | O57.5 |
| Close |  ASU @ ARIZ2020 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread |
-9 | 70–7 | W | O56.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Stanford have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
HAW +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
81° · 13 mph
gusts 29 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
STAN1st game
HAW6d
Even
Travel
STAN 2,399 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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