Sat, Sep 2, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Purdue
Closing spread
PUR -5.5
✓ FRES W
Total
—
Model before kickoff
FRES 24–29 PUR
✗ PUR (65%) lost
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
ClosePUR -5.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
Open—
no open
ClosePUR -5.5
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Close—
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
ClosePUR -5.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
PUR as a 5.5-point home favorite against FRES, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: FRES won 39–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 46%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.6 against an average line of 6.1; 50.2 points a game (usually 54.2).
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  HOU vs  TULN2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 24–27 | L | U52 |
| Very close |  UCF vs  LOU2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-5.5 | 14–20 | L | U62.5 |
| Very close |  ECU vs  MEM2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 47–45 | L | O62.5 |
| Very close |  BYU vs  BSU2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-6 | 17–26 | L | U58 |
| Very close | TULN vs  TEM2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-6.75 | 38–3 | W | U57.5 |
| Very close | LOU vs  FSU2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 48–16 | W | O62.25 |
| Very close |  AFA vs  WYO2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 24–14 | W | U46.5 |
| Very close |  SYR vs  BC2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-6.5 | 21–6 | W | U51.5 |
| Very close |  APP vs  MRSH2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-7 | 31–30 | L | O59.25 |
| Very close | PUR vs  ORST2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-7 | 30–21 | W | U68 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Fresno State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
PUR +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
80° · 6 mph
gusts 15 mph · at kickoff
Rest
FRES1st game
PUR1st game
Even
Travel
FRES 1,780 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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