Sat, Aug 26, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at San Diego State
Weather at kickoff77°F12 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›
0-0 · Power #63
13
final
Final
@
0-0 · Power #112
20
▲ winner
Closing spread
SDSU -3.5
✓ SDSU W
Total
—
 
Model before kickoff
OHIO 24–27 SDSU
✓ SDSU (60%) won
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseSDSU -3.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook
SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line
Opennot available
CloseSDSU -3.5
Total—
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 3.5-point home favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 20–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.5 against an average line of 3.3; 41.1 points a game (usually 54.9).

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
STAN vs ASU
2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-315–14 L U52
Very close
GT vs VT
2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-3.517–26 L U55.25
Very close
FRES vs NEV
2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-3.534–32 L O64.5
Very close
DUKE vs BC
2020 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation
-3.56–26 L U50.5
Very close
TULN vs ECU
2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & spread
-2.524–9 W U55.5
Very close
TLSA vs HOU
2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-3.510–45 L O54
Very close
BSU vs AFA
2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-317–24 L U52
Very close
SC vs MIZ
2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-3.510–23 L U45.25
Very close
VT vs BC
2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-327–10 W U45
Very close
LOU vs BC
2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-428–14 W U57.5
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Ohio have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
SDSU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 12 mph
gusts 23 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
OHIO1st game
SDSU1st game
Even
Travel
OHIO 1,995 mi
3 time zones

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week